Sparta Rotterdam welcome AZ Alkmaar to the Het Kasteel on Saturday in round 31 of the 2021-22 Eredivisie season.
The teams have enjoyed mixed fortunes this term, but this weekend's encounter still has all the makings of an absorbing affair.
Match preview
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AZ Alkmaar picked up a third consecutive win on home turf courtesy of a narrow 2-1 victory against Heerenveen on Saturday at the AFAS Stadion.
Pascal Jansen's men went behind to Amin Sarr's seventh-minute opener but restored parity on the stroke of half time through Jesper Karlsson before Tijjani Reijnders netted a late winner.
Consequently, the Cheeseheads are now guaranteed to finish at least fifth in the Eredivisie table, while they remain hot on the heels of Feyenoord and Twente in third and fourth place respectively.
Lying in store next is the challenge of an opposing side who have lost all but two of the previous editions of this fixture dating back to 1996.
Winless in their last three outings away from home, Saturday's visitors will be looking to end their dry spell on the road and string together a good run of results as the season draws to an end.
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Sparta Rotterdam were beaten for the third time in four league matches following a 2-0 defeat to FC Twente on Friday.
Goals in either half from Ricky van Wolfswinkel and Michel Vlap put Henk Fraser's men to the sword at the Grolsch Veste Stadium.
De Kasteelheren have now dropped to the bottom of the league standings, albeit just three points adrift of safety with four games remaining.
Having collected four of the last six points available on home turf, Saturday's hosts will be keen to come away with all three points this weekend as they enter the last chance saloon to preserve their top-flight status.
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Team News
Nineteen-year-old Yusuf Barasi has not featured for AZ since the turn of the year due to a long-term knee injury which he sustained in his final outing of 2021.
The away side will also be without the services of Jelle Duin, who is currently rehabilitating after recently undergoing surgery.
Pantelis Chatzidiakos sat out his AZ's most recent outing, but the defender is expected to come back into the starting XI for this one.
Sparta's Adil Auassar is a huge doubt in the centre of the hosts' defence as he hobbled off with a knock against Twente last time out.
Augustin Drakpe was Auassar's replacement in the aforementioned game and could be handed his first start of the campaign this weekend.
Sparta Rotterdam possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Durmisi, Drakpe, Vriends, Heylen, Abels; Masouras, Verschueren, Van Mullem, Jans; Thy
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl; Sugawara, Beukema, Martins Indi, Wijndal; Clasie, Midtsjo; Karlsson, De Wit, Aboukhlal; Pavlidis
We say: Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 AZ Alkmaar
AZ are in better form coming into Saturday's game, while they also boast a good record in this fixture. We are tipping them to narrowly edge out their hosts in what should be a keenly-contested encounter.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.11%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 18.55%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.55%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-0 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
