The weekend's Bundesliga action concludes with a huge relegation battle between Wolfsburg and Greuther Furth at the Volkswagen Arena on Sunday afternoon.
The hosts continue to slide down the table at an alarming rate due to their catastrophic form, whilst the visitors have given themselves the slightest glimmer of hope of survival thanks to their improvement in recent weeks.
Match preview
© Reuters
Wolfsburg's desperate situation in the Bundesliga seems to worsen as the weeks pass by at the moment, with Sunday's hosts now occupying 15th spot and finding themselves just two points above Augsburg in the relegation playoff place.
For a side that began the season with four wins on the bounce and topped the table as a result, and one that was competing in the Champions League group stages, it remains remarkable that the Wolves are now fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table.
The troubles have arisen thanks to their dreadful run of form since those opening victories, with previous boss Mark van Bommel, and current manager Florian Kohfeldt, having won a combined total of just three games in the 22 competitive fixtures that have followed, all of which arrived in the latter's first three games in charge.
He too has since endured a similar torrid time as his predecessor, having now failed to win in each of his last 11 games at the helm, including a failure to score in the most recent four.
Those goalscoring woes have been compounded by the loss of striker Wout Weghorst to Premier League side Burnley in the January transfer window, as well as top goalscorer Lukas Nmecha's broken ankle.
New signings Max Kruse and Jonas Wind have been brought in from Union Berlin and Copenhagen respectively, and they will be tasked with filling the void left behind by the duo, beginning on Sunday in this almighty relegation clash.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, whilst Greuther's situation is arguably more of a concern than their hosts', the visitors have at least showed signs of fight and spirit in their recent outings.
The newly-promoted side were always going to struggle in only their second ever Bundesliga campaign owing to their obvious lack of stature and budget compared to their divisional rivals, but their campaign could not have begun much worse.
Having picked up just one point from their opening 14 Bundesliga games this campaign, Stefan Leitl's side looked set for an immediate return to the 2.Bundesliga with the unwanted tag of the lowest-ever points tally achieved in the top flight.
However, since then, the Cloverleaves have lost just once in their last six outings, which expectedly arrived at the hands of second-placed Borussia Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park.
Home victories over Union Berlin and Mainz 05, and draws against fellow strugglers Augsburg, Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld in that time, have still left their position unaltered at the foot of the table, but have at least restored a bit of pride into the minnows' season.
With 11 points separating them from their hosts in safety ahead of their clash, it would still take the greatest-ever escape to survive, but should they manage to pick up their first win on the road this season on Sunday, there may yet be more than a glimmer of hope for Greuther for the remainder of this campaign.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
As mentioned above, Lukas Nmecha's broken ankle for the hosts will keep the forward sidelined until April, so Kruse and Wind will be looking to make their debuts on Sunday.
The likes of Dodi Lukebakio, Felix Nmecha and Luca Waldschmidt will compete to earn the final spot in the front three, with the latter having recovered from the injury he picked up last time out at RB Leipzig before the international break.
Paulo Otavio, William and Xaver Schlager are also out for the long-term due to serious knee injuries, but there are no other injury concerns for Kohfeldt to contend with.
As for the visitors, their new signing Andreas Linde is expected to make his debut at the Volkswagen Arena on Sunday.
The Swede should become Greuther's first-choice goalkeeper over the coming months, with Sascha Burchert set to make way between the posts.
Marius Funk, Robin Kehr and Jessic Ngankam have all been absent for the long term, and Jetro Willems will join them on the sidelines for the foreseeable future following the full-back's knee injury suffered against Mainz before the break.
Julian Green is the only other player absent, so Leitl is expected to name the same side that defeated Mainz, other than the switch in goal and the enforced change at full-back.
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Lacroix, Bornauw, Brooks; Baku, Arnold, Vranckx, Roussillon; Lukebakio, Kruse; Wind
Greuther Furth possible starting lineup:
Linde; Meyerhofer, Griesbeck, Viergever, Itter; Seguin, Christiansen, Tillman; Dudziak; Hrgota, Leweling
We say: Wolfsburg 2-1 Greuther Furth
This looks set to be a tight and nervy clash between two relegation-threatened sides, but with Greuther forced to target the three points due to their situation, this should open the game up eventually and result in some goals.
Due to their overall quality advantage, and despite their dreadful run of form, Wolfsburg should manage to edge out their visitors on Sunday, although we would not be too surprised to see Greuther pick up yet another point.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 61.14%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 16.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Greuther Furth win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.
