Jannik Sinner is the favourite to make it to consecutive ATP World Tour Finals championship matches when he takes on Casper Ruud in Saturday's second semi-final.
The world No. 1 player went three for three in the round-robin and seeks to continue his fine form to beat his Norwegian opponent, whose Turin turnaround has contrasted with what preceded the year-end tournament.
Match preview
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Sinner has arguably not hit his peak form in Turin this year despite notching wins over Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz and Daniil Medvedev.
The Italian, who went 3-0 in the Ilie Nastase Group, is yet to drop a set on home turf, sharing that feat with another semi-finalist Alexander Zverev.
Both players advanced without dropping a set in the round-robin — emulating Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic's 2014 achievement — and are favourites to overcome semi-final hurdles.
Sinner's victory over Medvedev to close out the round-robin was his 12th in 2024 against top-10 opponents, and he bids for his 13th at Ruud's expense.
Since Carlos Alcaraz beat him in Beijing in late September, the Italian has clinched five consecutive wins over that elite group without dropping a set.
Having defeated Medvedev twice in that run, as well as Djokovic, De Minaur and Fritz, Sinner aims to extend his hot streak against the ATP Tour's best players.
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Ruud will be no pushover, especially in a week where his best form has seemingly returned after a disappointing post-US Open run.
The Norwegian clinched two victories after the final Grand Slam of the year heading into the season finale in Turn and was not given a prayer before the round-robin; however, group stage victories over Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev mean some confidence has returned before a third tour-level meeting with Sinner.
Those results have given the 25-year-old another semi-final shot, continuing his run of avoiding early exits at the year-end tournament — he made the semis in 2021 and played Djokovic in the 2022 final.
Ruud entered the Finals with a 5-4 record at the tournament and has improved to 7-5 before facing Sinner, against whom he seeks his first success on the men's tour.
An eighth Finals win of his career against the most consistent player of 2024 will stun the crowd at the Inalpi Arena, and the 12-time tour champion seeks a seventh top-10 victory of the season to battle Zverev or Fritz in Sunday's decider.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
Round robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 6-3 6-4
Round robin: vs. Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-4
Round robin: vs. Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-4
Casper Ruud:
Round robin: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 6–1 7–5
Round robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-7[3] 3-6
Round robin: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-4 5-7 6-2
Head To Head
Vienna (2021) - Quarter-final: Sinner 7-5 6-1
Vienna (2020) - Round of 32: Sinner 7-6(2) 6-3
Sinner leads his head-to-head with Ruud 2-0, even if both players have not faced on the ATP Tour since meeting in Vienna three years ago.
Strikingly, both encounters have been in Austria, with the Italian star not dropping a set against the three-time Slam finalist.
Ruud's sixth top-10 victory of 2024 came against Rublev, seeing him surpass his 2022 high, and he bids to record his seventh against that elite group by stunning this season's finest performer.
We say: Sinner to win in two sets
Despite not seemingly leaving first gear, Sinner's play has seen off a debutant in De Minaur, a revenge-chasing US Open finalist in Fritz and an old pro in Medvedev.
Although Ruud's confidence has ostensibly returned in Turin, he is not anticipated to get the better of the world No. 1, who is backed to play Sunday's final and right last year's perceived wrongs.
