Expect entertainment and impressive ball-striking when Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti battle in Saturday's Australian Open third-round contest.
The Italian is undefeated against the effervescent United States player, and extending that winning run will take the 16th seed into the fourth round Down Under for the first time.
Match preview
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Shelton and Musetti have similarities en route to this year's third round at Melbourne Park: both men have defeated countrymen, dropped one set apiece and faced tie-breaks in rounds one and two.
The 21st seed defeated Brandon Nakashima in his tournament opener in straight sets before needing four to seal a round-two triumph over Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta despite losing a third-set shootout; the American clinched the fourth to seal a 6-3 6-3 6-7(4) 6-4 victory.
Following that success is a match-up with his first seeded opponent in Australia, with success for Shelton taking him one win away from matching his 2023 quarter-final run.
Although reaching the last eight may require beating in-form countryman Taylor Fritz if the United States No. 1 player defeats Gael Monfils, Shelton cannot afford to look that far ahead, given his losing record against Saturday's opponent.
Despite exiting at this stage last year, the 22-year-old's 80% win rate in Australia ranks above the US Open (70%), Wimbledon (67%) and Roland Garros (50%), and he aims for a ninth career win Down Under at Musetti's expense.
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The Italian player can be tagged this year's tie-break man due to his 100% record in four shootouts in rounds one and two to eliminate compatriot Matteo Arnaldi (7-6[4], 4-6, 7-6[5], 6-3) and Denis Shapovalov (7-6[3], 7-6[6], 6-2).
Musetti raising his level in those shootouts bodes well for his prospects against the booming serve of the American as he bids for a round-four place in Australia.
This year's run has already outdone the 22-year-old's previous three involvements at Melbourne Park, where he suffered tournament-opening exits in 2022 and 2023 before exiting in the second round 12 months ago.
With two victories this year, Musetti has doubled his previous tally of wins at the opening major of the tennis season, thus improving on his 25% win rate before the tournament's commencement - significantly lower than his French Open results (67%), Wimbledon (64%) and the US Open (56%).
The one-time Grand Slam semi-finalist has never lost to Shelton in two match-ups, and he aims to record a third straight success over the leftie for a fourth-round contest with Fritz or Monfils.
Tournament so far
Ben Shelton:
First round: vs. Brandon Nakashima 7-6[3] 7-5 7-5
Second round: vs. Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3 6-3 6-7[4] 6-4
Lorenzo Musetti:
First round: vs. Matteo Arnaldi 7-6[4] 4-6 7-6[5] 6-3
Second round: vs. Denis Shapovalov 7-6[3] 7-6[6] 6-2
Head To Head
Miami Masters (2024) - Round of 32: Musetti 6-4 7-6(5)
Queen's Club (2023) - Round of 16: Musetti 6-4 4-6 6-4
Musetti has won both matches against Shelton on the ATP Tour, though Saturday's encounter will represent the pair's first at a Grand Slam.
The Italian won their only meeting on hard courts in Miami last year in two tight sets, notably clinching a second-set tie-break.
The 16th seed holds a 25-16 win-loss record against lefties, with Thursday's win over Shapovalov snapping a two-match losing run against such opponents.
While Shelton enters this weekend's match 8-19 against players ranked in the top 20, the American player has notched three wins in his last four against opponents in that category, losing only to Jannik Sinner in Shanghai – his wins were against Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev and Arthur Fils.
We say: Musetti to win in five sets
Saturday's meeting between these 22-year-olds could go either way, despite Musetti's 2-0 advantage in their head-to-head.
We anticipate the match going all the way, with the Italian player taking the decider to extend his winning streak in five-setters to four following last year's wins over Luciano Darderi, Fritz (both at Wimbledon) and Miomir Kecmanovic at the US Open.
