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Preview: Australian Open: Madison Keys vs. Elina Svitolina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Australian Open quarter-final match between Madison Keys and Elina Svitolina, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Aiming to secure a last-four berth, two-time Australian Open semi-finalist Madison Keys seeks to outwit three-time Aussie Open quarter-finalist Elina Svitolina in Wednesday's last-eight match.

The 19th seed can do no wrong at the moment, continuing her momentum after recently triumphing in Adelaide to set up a sixth meeting against Svitolina, who seeks a maiden Australian Open semi-final appearance.


Match preview

Madison Keys reacts at the Australian Open on January 20, 2025© Imago

Along with Coco Gauff and Emma Navarro, Keys is one of three American women in the Aussie Open quarter-final, with all three players capable of reaching the last four at the opening Slam of the year.

On the back of her triumph in Adelaide, where she beat countrywoman Jessica Pegula in the title match, the 29-year-old has notched four more victories at Melbourne Park to come within one more triumph of reaching a third last-four berth after 2015 and 2022.

That semi-final three years back was followed by a round-three exit and non-participation last year, and those disappointments have added to the American player's ambition to reach another.

Her four victories in Australia this year, including wins over 10th seed Danielle Collins and sixth seed Elena Rybakina, mean she is 31-10 at the event, where her 75.6% win percentage outdoes even her US Open results (72%), putting her three victories from a maiden Grand Slam triumph and tenth career title after notching a ninth at the turn of the year.

Elina Svitolina in action at the Australian Open on January 20, 2025© Imago

The 19th seed cannot afford to look that far ahead against the 30-year-old, who has dropped one set en route to the quarter-final, eliminating fourth seed Jasmine Paolini in the third round.

Svitolina came close to dropping another in Monday's fourth-round success over Veronika Kudermetova, claiming a 6-4, 6-1 victory after finding herself 1-4 down in the opening set to seal an impressive win in one hour and 23 minutes.

Even more impressive for the returning Ukrainian 17-time tour champion is that the ongoing run in Australia has come in her first matches since last year's US Open, where she exited to Gauff in round three in New York.

Now 4-0 this season, the three-time Grand Slam semi-finalist returns to the last eight Down Under for the first time since consecutive appearances in 2018 and 2019.

Having suffered losses to Elise Mertens and Naomi Osaka in those appearances, the latter of whom went on to claim the title, the 30-year-old hopes to be third-time lucky six years after her last run to the quarters.


Tournament so far

Madison Keys:

First round: vs. Ann Li 6-4 7-5
Second round: vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse 7-6[1] 2-6 7-5
Third round: vs. Danielle Collins 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-3 1-6 6-3

Elina Svitolina:

First round: vs. Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-4
Second round: vs. Caroline Dolehide 6-1 6-4
Third round: vs. Jasmine Paolini 2-6 6-4 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Veronika Kudermetova 6-4 6-1


Head To Head

Adelaide (2022) - Round of 32: Keys 6-2 6-4

US Open (2019) - Fourth round: Svitolina 7-5 6-4

Australian Open (2019) - Fourth round: Svitolina 6-2 1-6 6-1

US Open (2017) - Fourth round: Keys 7-6(2) 1-6 6-4

New Haven (2015) - Round of 32: Keys 7-6(4) 4-2 ret

Both women will face off for the sixth time on the women's tour, with Keys 3-2 ahead in their head-to-head, though this will be the pair's first meeting since 2022.

Wednesday's encounter will be their fourth at Grand Slams, with Svitolina edging such matches 2-1, including a fourth-round battle in Australia in 2019.

Keys enters the quarter-final on a nine-match winning run, while the Ukrainian has notched four wins on the bounce, all coming at Melbourne Park in her first matches this season.


SM words green background

We say: Keys to win in three sets

Keys and Svitolina tussle for the sixth time since their initial meeting 10 years back and the first in four years in Adelaide.

The American's superior match sharpness, momentum on the back of her ninth tour triumph in Adelaide and defeating two seeded opponents, Collins and Rybakina, stand her in good stead to reach another semi-final in Melbourne.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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