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Asian Cup
Australia national football team
Asian Cup | Group Stage
Jan 23, 2024 at 11.30am UK
Al Janoub Stadium
Uzbekistan national football team

Australia
1 - 1
Uzbekistan

Boyle (45+1' pen.)
Souttar (50'), McGree (69')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Turgunboev (78')
Eshmuradov (25'), Khamrobekov (44'), Shukurov (45+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Asian Cup clash between Australia and Uzbekistan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Australia

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Syria 0-1 Australia
Thursday, January 18 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Uzbekistan

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: India 0-3 Uzbekistan
Thursday, January 18 at 2.30pm in Asian Cup

We said: Australia 0-0 Uzbekistan

 Four years ago, the Aussies beat the White Wolves in the last 16 on penalties after the match ended in a 0-0 draw, and given how sharp both sides have been defensively of late, we could be in for a similar outcome. While first place is up for grabs, we do not expect to see a great sense of urgency from either team, with Australia ensured of a place in the last 16 and Uzbekistan looking likely to join them, barring a calamity by themselves and a sudden burst of goals from Syria. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 42.91%. A win for Uzbekistan had a probability of 29.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Uzbekistan win was 0-1 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
AustraliaDrawUzbekistan
42.91% (-2.197 -2.2) 27.2% (0.57 0.57) 29.89% (1.623 1.62)
Both teams to score 48.76% (-0.77999999999999 -0.78)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.61% (-1.428 -1.43)56.39% (1.425 1.43)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.59% (-1.168 -1.17)77.4% (1.164 1.16)
Australia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.98% (-1.744 -1.74)26.02% (1.74 1.74)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.95% (-2.407 -2.41)61.05% (2.404 2.4)
Uzbekistan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.9% (0.485 0.48)34.1% (-0.48800000000001 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.21% (0.519 0.52)70.78% (-0.523 -0.52)
Score Analysis
    Australia 42.91%
    Uzbekistan 29.89%
    Draw 27.2%
AustraliaDrawUzbekistan
1-0 @ 11.94% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
2-1 @ 8.65% (-0.281 -0.28)
2-0 @ 8.04% (-0.372 -0.37)
3-1 @ 3.88% (-0.332 -0.33)
3-0 @ 3.61% (-0.361 -0.36)
3-2 @ 2.09% (-0.149 -0.15)
4-1 @ 1.31% (-0.185 -0.19)
4-0 @ 1.22% (-0.19 -0.19)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 42.91%
1-1 @ 12.85% (0.23 0.23)
0-0 @ 8.87% (0.475 0.48)
2-2 @ 4.65% (-0.088 -0.09)
Other @ 0.82%
Total : 27.2%
0-1 @ 9.55% (0.631 0.63)
1-2 @ 6.91% (0.214 0.21)
0-2 @ 5.14% (0.402 0.4)
1-3 @ 2.48% (0.109 0.11)
0-3 @ 1.84% (0.167 0.17)
2-3 @ 1.67% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 29.89%

How you voted: Australia vs Uzbekistan

Australia
74.5%
Draw
17.6%
Uzbekistan
7.8%
51
rhs 2.0
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