Two of Serie A's top five clash on Sunday afternoon, as Atalanta BC host Scudetto contenders Napoli at the Gewiss Stadium.
While the visitors arrive in Bergamo to resume their pursuit of a long-awaited title - sitting just three points behind league leaders Milan - their hosts are in a scrap for a top-four finish following some faltering form before the international break.
Match preview
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After previously sliding to sixth in the league standings with a grim goalless draw with Genoa - their second successive failure to score against Serie A's 18th-placed side - Atalanta were indebted to a most unlikely source for securing three precious points in their last outing, at Bologna.
With a squad depleted by injury and lacking a cutting edge up front, the Bergamaschi were saved by an unheralded Guinean teenager, as Moustapha Cisse arrived from the bench to snatch an 82nd-minute winner at Dall'Ara.
While that win backed up progress in the Europa League, following an impressive aggregate victory over Bundesliga high-fliers Bayer Leverkusen, Gian Piero Gasperini's side have been suffering their most prolonged spell of decline for several years.
After posting six Serie A wins in a row between November and December, Atalanta have added only three during their last 12 league matches, and the source of their troubles has been plainly apparent: since mid-December, they have scored at a rate of 1.2 goals per game, when they had previously managed an average of 2.2 up to that point.
In the continuing absence of star striker Duvan Zapata, the Nerazzurri may have found the net through 18 different players in Serie A this season - more than any other side, and a record for the club in a single top-flight campaign - but they will need to step up offensively if they are to pip Juventus to fourth place come May.
Trailing the Turin giants by eight points - albeit still with a game in hand - Atalanta will start the run-in against one of Italy's most fearsome away sides, but they have at least won four of their last six Serie A meetings with Napoli, including both of their last two.
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Following a 3-2 home defeat in December's reverse fixture - when they blew a 2-1 lead during the last half-hour - Napoli travel to Lombardy this week having not drawn in their last six league visits to the Gewiss Stadium.
Often an entertaining affair, the clubs have shared three wins apiece, with the last two won by the hosts, but Luciano Spalletti's side will start as most observers' favourites as they lead Atalanta by 12 points in the table.
Again proving their reliance on top scorer Victor Osimhen, Napoli came from behind to beat Udinese just before the international break, with the Nigeria striker rattling in a second-half brace to move onto 15 goals for the season.
The Partenopei have won 70% of their Serie A games this season with Osimhen in the starting lineup, while their win-rate drops to half without him up front - primarily during a spell when he was sidelined by a cheek fracture late last year. Perhaps crucially, he misses out through suspension this week.
A double for the prolific striker in Napoli's last away game - a 2-1 win over Hellas Verona - took the Campanian club onto 34 points from 15 away matches so far, and only in the record-shattering 2017-18 campaign have they ever before picked up as many at this stage of the season.
Indeed, they have lost only one league match outside of Naples this term - winning 10 times in the process - so will be justifiably confident of returning south with three points on Sunday evening.
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Team News
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Despite a fortnight's hiatus, Atalanta still have centre-forward Duvan Zapata and captain Rafael Toloi out of action due to injury, but both Aleksei Miranchuk and Ruslan Malinovskyi have recovered after being sidelined against Bologna.
In Zapata's continued absence, Gian Piero Gasperini has an attacking conundrum to resolve, and Jeremie Boga may again feature as a 'false nine', due to Luis Muriel's lack of form.
Having only returned to Bergamo late this week, the striker was excluded from Colombia's last World Cup qualifier and has scored just four league goals so far this season - he last scored as few in a Serie A campaign back in 2014-15.
Meanwhile, Moustapha Cisse would be a wildcard candidate following his heroics last time out, but he is more likely to start on the bench.
Napoli have a number of important players unavailable to meet the challenge of La Dea, and Luciano Spalletti will be without his own attacking talisman, as Victor Osimhen serves a suspension for accumulated bookings.
Defensive regular Amir Rrahmani must also fulfill a one-match ban, while Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Andrea Petagna and back-up goalkeeper Alex Meret remain on the treatment table.
Piotr Zielinski came off injured during Poland's win over Sweden in the World Cup playoffs, so is a doubt, but Fabian Ruiz is expected to be passed fit to feature in midfield. In the absence of Osimhen and Petagna, club record goalscorer Dries Mertens is set to start up front.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Palomino, Demiral, Djimsiti; Hateboer, De Roon, Freuler, Zappacosta; Koopmeiners, Malinovskyi; Boga
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Malcuit, Koulibaly, Jesus, Rui; Lobotka, Anguissa, Ruiz; Politano, Mertens, Insigne
We say: Atalanta BC 1-1 Napoli
While Napoli can boast one of the best away records in Europe this season - conceding only 11 goals in 15 outings - they are once again diminished by injury and suspension, so may be forced to settle for a draw.
Atalanta's travails in the final third show no signs of resolution, and they would probably take a point from this encounter if offered.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 35.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
