After taking care of the league leaders a week ago, Atletico Goianiense have an opportunity to add further misery to Gremio on Monday when they face the team from Porto Alegre at Atletico Clube Goianiense Stadium.
Dragao pulled off perhaps their biggest upset of the campaign by beating first-place Atletico Mineiro 2-1 last Sunday, while Gremio won their first game under their new manager last week, defeating Juventude 3-2.
Match preview
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Goianiense made a statement a week ago that they deserve to be in the top flight of Brazilian football, ending Galo's 17-match unbeaten run and at the same time earning their first victory in their last four league fixtures.
That moved them into 11th in the standings heading into the second-last weekend of October, improving their record on the season to eight wins and eight defeats.
They began this month with a nice boost, but one that is not uncommon when a side goes through a managerial change, as their interim boss Eduardo Souza guided them to a 3-0 victory over Fortaleza.
That boost did not last long though as they could only collect one point from their next three games, but there is renewed hope after beating the top team in the league, their first home win since June 23.
It seems like having more possession has been a curse for them, as they have failed to win their last three games in which they have had near or over 60% of the ball in a match, failing to score on all three of those occasions.
On the other hand, their previous two victories came when they had 32 and 36% possession respectively, so perhaps biding their time and finding a way to frustrate their opponents would be the way to go moving forward.
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So many times, we have heard the phrase money does not buy happiness, and at the moment, Gremio, who are among the wealthiest clubs in South America, have not had a lot to smile about.
In 2017, Forbes rated Immortal Tricolor as the third-richest club in the Americas, with an estimated value of $295.5 million, but fast forward four years later, and we can see that whatever investments they have made in players has not paid off.
The former two-time league winners are second from the bottom with 26 points and are in danger of dropping into the second tier of Brazilian football, a place that they have not been since 2005.
Gremio recently appointed their third manager this year, and Vagner Mancini began his second stint as the boss on a positive note, with his side defeating Juventude 3-2.
While they only allowed three shots on goal, it has to be concerning that they conceded twice, and Mancini knows that his side need to be sharper defensively, especially given that their next two fixtures are against teams (Palmeiras and Atletico Mineiro) who are a lot more clinical than Juve.
Scoring first is, of course, always important for any team, but Gremio have really struggled when playing from behind, failing to win their last nine matches in all competitions in which they have conceded the opener, while they have won seven consecutive fixtures in all competitions when drawing first blood.
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Team News
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Janderson scored just six minutes after Nathan Silva had given Mineiro the lead last Sunday and then assisted on the winner from Oliveira with less than 10 minutes remaining, the first of the campaign for the 25-year-old defender.
Lucao had the only goal for Goianiense in their first meeting against Gremio this year, thanks to an excellent play from Dudu, who has yet to find the back of the net in 2021.
Gabriel Baralhas was preferred over Matheus Barbosa in midfield versus Galo, and Janderson replaced Joao Paulo in the starting 11.
Douglas Costa scored his second goal this year for Rei de Copas last Sunday, putting him two back of Diego Souza, who picked his team-leading fourth of the campaign with Mathias Villasanti scoring his first of the year.
Diego Churin is still searching for his first strike of the 2021 season, while Rafinha leads the way when it comes to assists with four.
In their previous match Paulo Miranda took the place of Rodrigues in central defence, Rafinha started at the back over Ruan, Villasanti replaced Guilherme Guedes, Thiago Santos began the game instead of Vanderson and Ferreira was a substitute with Douglas Costa starting in the midfield.
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Jefferson, Wanderson, Eder, Igor; Freitas, Maranhao; Janderson, Andre, Paulo; Ze Roberto
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Brenno; Vanderson, Miranda, Rodrigues, Rafinha; Villasanti, Santos; Costa, Pyerre, Alisson; Souza
We say: Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Gremio
Do not let their result last weekend fool you, Goianiense are not good at home, going goalless in three of their previous four fixtures before defeating the top team in Serie A, as they struggle to find a lot of creative ways to get through opposing defences.
Gremio have had a lot of trouble when it comes to consistency, but we expect them to maintain a high level of desperation knowing that they can potentially move out of relegation with a win.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Goianiense win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Goianiense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.79%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (11.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Goianiense would win this match.
