Cardiff City and Swansea City face off on Saturday lunchtime in the first South Wales derby of the Championship campaign.
The Bluebirds head into the game in better form than their bitter rivals, but it is the Swans who are four points better off in the table.
Match preview
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This is a fixture Cardiff fans would have been dreading just a couple of weeks ago on the back of a 1-0 loss to Coventry City that left them 18th, nine points behind Swansea.
Since that shambolic loss at St Andrew's, though, they have won four games from four, scoring 10 goals and conceding just one.
That includes back-to-back away victories over Watford and Stoke City, recovering from a goal down against the latter in midweek to keep their momentum going into this huge game.
For all of Cardiff's improvements under Neil Harris of late, they are still playing catch up to their far more consistent opponents.
Swansea have lost only three of their 17 games so far, most recently playing out a goalless stalemate with Bournemouth on Tuesday.
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That draw keeps them fourth, one point off the automatic promotion spots, but there is more to Saturday's fixture than just points on the line.
This will be the 11th time the bitter rivals have faced off since 2008, with three of those games, including January's stalemate, finishing all square.
The Swans have lost two of their last four trips to the Cardiff City Stadium, and they have won only one of their last six away matches in the league this term.
Cardiff, by comparison, have won three of their last four matches on home soil and now have a chance to derail their neighbours' promotion aspirations.
One thing that must also be factored in, of course, is that no fans will be present at a meeting between these sides for the first time ever due to coronavirus restrictions in Wales.
Cardiff City Championship form: DLWWWW
Swansea City Championship form: WDWLWD
Team News
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Harry Wilson picked up an injury against Stoke in midweek and is doubtful for this match, coinciding with Junior Hoilett's return to fitness in the wide areas.
Cardiff boss Harris has been consistent with his team selection of late so, that likely absence of Wilson aside, no big changes are expected.
Kieffer Moore fired a blank against Stoke but still has eight goals in the Championship this term, behind only Lucas Joao, Ivan Toney and Adam Armstrong.
As for Swansea, they are sweating on the fitness of Marc Guehi and Ryan Bennett after the defensive duo missed the Bournemouth stalemate through injury.
Steve Cooper said on Thursday he will give both players every chance of being fit, but the Swans may well have to prepare for the eventuality of being without two key men.
The visitors have kept back-to-back clean sheets, while up the other end of the field, Andre Ayew has top scored with seven goals in 16 appearances.
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Bacuna, Morrison, Nelson, Bennett; Hoilett, Ralls, Vaulks, Ojo; Harris, Moore
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Naughton, Cabango, Latibeaudiere; Roberts, Smith, Grimes, Bidwell; Dhanda; Ayew, Lowe
We say: Cardiff City 1-1 Swansea City
The lack of fans for this game is a real shame, but both sides will no doubt understand exactly what it means to those watching from home.
Swansea may be six places better off than Cardiff, though no team has been in better form than the hosts over the last six matches.
Taking that into account, plus the recent results between the sides, we are backing this one to finish all square in the Welsh capital.
Top betting tip
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 37.79%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 35.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
