A spot in the 2022 Copa Libertadores qualifying round is within reach for Internacional, who can capture consecutive victories in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A for the first time since early October when they travel to Arena Pantanal to face Cuiaba on Wednesday.
The league runners-up in 2020 came back to beat Athletico Paranaense 2-1 on Saturday, as Colorado are now four points back of a place in that competition next year, chasing Corinthians, who beat Cuiaba 3-2 this past weekend.
Match preview
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No one can question the effort of this team from Mato Grosso, who are competing in the top flight of Brazilian football for the first time in their history.
On Saturday, they found themselves behind the eight-ball early against Corinthians, who had only lost two matches this year when scoring first, and to their credit, Cuiaba fought hard to keep the game close but ultimately came up short, losing by a single goal for a second successive encounter.
It was the first time this year that Jorginho had seen his team concede three times in a single game, although they did not play poorly, but there were a few mental breakdowns that cost them.
Their positional play at home has been exceptional on the defensive side, coming into this game without a goal conceded at Arena Pantanal in five straight matches in all competitions.
Their defeat over the weekend has them clinging to the final Copa Sudamericana position for next year, currently in 12th, with a slightly superior goal difference than Ceara.
Dourado have never been in much danger of dropping down into Serie B, mainly because of their ability to bounce back from a defeat, losing consecutive fixtures only twice, although their current six-point cushion does not put them out of the woods just yet.
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Internacional have indeed turned Estadio Beira-Rio into a difficult place to play, unbeaten now in 11 straight league fixtures played there, but they have not been as successful on the road, winless in their last five away games.
Over the weekend, Diego Aguirre saw his players achieve something that they had not been able to do all year in the Brasileiro Serie A, come back to win a match when trailing.
Since Aguirre took charge in June, this team have only lost six of their 29 matches played in all competitions, and all but one of their defeats were by a single goal.
Clube do Povo have only scored one goal in their previous five road contests, so they will be happy to know that three of their remaining five fixtures this season following this one will be at home.
This is one of the most decorated clubs in Brazilian history with seven international trophies to go along with three Serie A championships, but it has been quite a while since they last won a trophy on the national or international stage, capturing the Recopa Sudamericana in 2011.
Colorado possesses a ton of versatility and quick-thinking midfielders who can provide quality service to their frontman, particularly Edenilson and Patrick, who can win balls from deep in their area and have been known to play several key passes, with 11 assists domestically this season between them.
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Team News
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Pepe got Cuiaba on the board late in the first half against Corinthians, their first goal since the start of November, putting him into a tie for third on the team with Jonathan Cafu, while Paulao tallied for his first goal of the season.
Guilherme Pato, who is currently on loan from Internacional, will be eager to get more playing time, having not featured in a match for Dourado since September 4.
This past weekend, Alan Empereur was inserted in central defence rather than Marllon and Rafael Gava took the place of Max in the starting 11.
Edenilson is not only doing it with his passing, but he has also been clinical in front of goal with a brace on Saturday to reverse the Internacional fortunes, putting him even with Yuri Alberto for the team lead at 11, while Carlos Palacios collected his second assist of the campaign this weekend and Mauricio picked up his third.
Rodrigo Moledo and Bruno Mendez are out with a cruciate ligament rupture and a hamstring injury, respectively, while Victor Cuesta will have to sit this one out following his yellow card versus El Paranaense.
Daniel stopped all four shots that he faced in their previous meeting this year against Dourado, despite Moises being sent off late in that game, as the 27-year-old has 10 clean sheets this year, one fewer than Cleiton, Tiago Volpi and Joao Paulo.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Uendel, Paulao, Marllon, Lucas; Pepe, Yuri; Clayson, Gava, Camilo; Elton
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Lomba; Saravia, Mendez, Heitor, Moises; Johnny, Dourado; Edenilson, Palacios, Patrick; Alberto
We say: Cuiaba 1-1 Internacional
Cuiaba will be much more in their element on Wednesday playing in their own backyard, having lost only once there since September.
The Colorado attack is a lot stronger than Cuiaba, but Dourado have shown a lot of poise and discipline, as they always seem to be in the right place at the right time at home.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 38.81%. A win for Internacional had a probability of 30.97% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.8%) and 2-1 (7.43%). The likeliest Internacional win was 0-1 (12.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cuiaba in this match.
