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Stuttgart
DFB-Pokal | Round of 16
Dec 6, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Mercedes-Benz-Arena
Dortmund logo

Stuttgart
2 - 0
Dortmund

Guirassy (54'), Wamangituka (77')
Anton (64'), Karazor (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Bensebaini (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stuttgart

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Stuttgart 2-0 Werder Bremen
Saturday, December 2 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 1-1 Dortmund
Sunday, December 3 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Stuttgart 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

 Both sides are enjoying positive runs and will certainly have their sights set on the quarter-finals, and we anticipate an entertaining encounter at the MHPArena on Wednesday. Having got the better of their visitors in the last Bundesliga meeting between the two teams, we fancy Stuttgart to again come out on top in this DFB-Pokal cup tie given the momentum on their side, particularly in attack. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 27.78% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.66%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.

Result
StuttgartDrawBorussia Dortmund
50.35% (2.935 2.94) 21.87% (-0.359 -0.36) 27.78% (-2.582 -2.58)
Both teams to score 65.2% (-0.599 -0.6)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.75% (0.0069999999999908 0.01)34.24% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.86% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)56.14% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Stuttgart Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.01% (0.98599999999999 0.99)13.99% (-0.991 -0.99)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.49% (1.907 1.91)41.5% (-1.91 -1.91)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.8% (-1.587 -1.59)24.19% (1.582 1.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.47% (-2.302 -2.3)58.52% (2.298 2.3)
Score Analysis
    Stuttgart 50.35%
    Borussia Dortmund 27.78%
    Draw 21.87%
StuttgartDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.29% (0.215 0.22)
1-0 @ 6.66% (0.227 0.23)
2-0 @ 6.55% (0.443 0.44)
3-1 @ 6.09% (0.348 0.35)
3-2 @ 4.32% (0.052 0.05)
3-0 @ 4.29% (0.429 0.43)
4-1 @ 3% (0.269 0.27)
4-2 @ 2.13% (0.098 0.1)
4-0 @ 2.11% (0.277 0.28)
5-1 @ 1.18% (0.143 0.14)
4-3 @ 1.01% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.74%
Total : 50.35%
1-1 @ 9.45% (-0.113 -0.11)
2-2 @ 6.59% (-0.154 -0.15)
0-0 @ 3.38% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-3 @ 2.05% (-0.071 -0.07)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 21.87%
1-2 @ 6.7% (-0.403 -0.4)
0-1 @ 4.8% (-0.232 -0.23)
0-2 @ 3.41% (-0.336 -0.34)
1-3 @ 3.17% (-0.351 -0.35)
2-3 @ 3.12% (-0.225 -0.23)
0-3 @ 1.61% (-0.243 -0.24)
1-4 @ 1.13% (-0.184 -0.18)
2-4 @ 1.11% (-0.137 -0.14)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 27.78%

How you voted: Stuttgart vs Dortmund

Stuttgart
43.4%
Draw
18.4%
Borussia Dortmund
38.2%
76
Head to Head
Nov 11, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 11
Stuttgart
2-1
Dortmund
Undav (42'), Guirassy (83' pen.)
Undav (15'), Karazor (59')
Fullkrug (36')
Kobel (10'), Adeyemi (15'), Sabitzer (49')
> Preview
Apr 15, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 28
Stuttgart
3-3
Dortmund
Coulibaly (78'), Vagnomann (84'), Wamangituka (90+7')
Haller (26'), Malen (33'), Reyna (90+2')
> Preview
Oct 22, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 11
Dortmund
5-0
Stuttgart
Bellingham (2', 53'), Sule (13'), Reyna (44'), Moukoko (72')
> Preview
Apr 8, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 29
Stuttgart
0-2
Dortmund

Mangala (45+3'), Karazor (86')
Brandt (12', 71')
Bellingham (82')
> Preview
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Stuttgart
Malen (56'), Reus (85')
Massimo (63')
Coulibaly (35'), Anton (48')
> Preview
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