Sparta

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Ajax

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 78.71%. A draw had a probability of 13.8% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 7.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.86%) and 0-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.53%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-0 (2.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.