We say: Chelsea 3-1 Bournemouth
The die should not be cast early on at Stamford Bridge, as Bournemouth have scored 10 goals via substitutes in the 2024-25 Premier League season, more than any other side in the top flight.
However, the Cherries head to West London with depleted options in both attack and defence, and Chelsea's refreshed first-choice XI should bring the Cherries' magical unbeaten run to an end while simultaneously ending their worrying winless sequence.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Chelsea win with a probability of 69.39%. A draw has a probability of 16.4% and a win for Bournemouth has a probability of 14.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (6.81%), while for a Bournemouth win it is 1-2 (3.91%).