Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 43%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 29.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.