A definitive pecking order remains elusive for now, but those in the know are beginning to glean insights into which teams and drivers might dominate when the 2025 season kicks off in Melbourne next month.
Official pre-season testing commenced in Bahrain on Wednesday, though a complete circuit power failure disrupted the close of the first day's running. "I don't think I've ever seen anything like that in modern Formula 1," remarked Red Bull adviser Dr Helmut Marko.
He was already taken aback by the conditions.
"We thought that there would be sun and warmth, but it's even colder than in Europe," Marko smiled to Kleine Zeitung newspaper.
Topping the timesheet was early 2025 favourite Lando Norris, trailed predictably by Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari. Lewis Hamilton, however, lagged a full second behind Charles Leclerc's pace.
"McLaren was very consistent and fast, as was Mercedes," Marko said, "although the temperatures could explain why Mercedes was so fast."
Regarding Ferrari and Hamilton specifically, the Austrian added: "I expected more from them.
"But it is too early for a final verdict, because there are still two days of testing left. We will see."
At Red Bull, technical chief Pierre Wache countered claims that the 'new' car is essentially a duplicate of its 2024 predecessor, which placed third in the constructors' championship behind McLaren and Ferrari.
"We have made major changes to the car, but most of them are not visible," the Frenchman conceded, pointing specifically to the cooling system and floor.
"We have also responded to the FIA's interpretation of the flexibility of the front wing."
This remark stands out, as tighter front wing flexibility regulations won't take effect until the ninth round in Barcelona.
Red Bull has voiced disapproval of the timing, arguing it splits 2025 into a costly two-phase championship in the last year of the current rules.
Trackside observers noted the front wing on the new Aston Martin exhibited striking flexibility, while Red Bull boss Christian Horner observed that nearly every car on the 2025 grid mirrors Red Bull's design.
"Only Ferrari has gone a different way," he said.
For Red Bull, both Marko and Max Verstappen expressed satisfaction with the strides made over the off-season to enhance drivability.
"Max's long runs were the best in the field," Marko said. "We were faster than McLaren and Mercedes, especially with old tyres."
The 81-year-old noted Verstappen only missed the top spot because he "wobbled on his best lap".
"In terms of driving," quadruple world champion Verstappen said, "everything felt good. No negative surprises, just good surprises, so that's positive.
"We don't know where we are in terms of pace yet, but everything is working well and the car is doing what I want. We have everything under control and that's all we can hope for at the start of testing."
Marko went further, confidently asserting: "I think the problems we had last year have been largely resolved, or perhaps even completely resolved."
