Bayer Leverkusen will have to produce one of the greatest Champions League comebacks of all time if they are to advance past visitors Bayern Munich into the quarter-finals when they meet on Tuesday at BayArena.
The hosts were beaten 3-0 by the Bavarians on March 5 in the first leg of their round of 16 clash following a second-half collapse, and it should also be noted that they trail their first-placed opponents by eight points in the Bundesliga.
Match preview
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Leverkusen were responsible for their own downfall in the second half, as while they already trailed 1-0 at half time, goalkeeper Matej Kovar gave Jamal Musiala a tap-in in the 54th minute after he tried but failed to claim an unthreatening cross into the box.
A two-goal deficit would have been enough of a challenge to overcome, but Nordi Mukiele was dismissed in the 62nd minute after he received a second yellow following a reckless challenge, giving his side no chance of recovery in the first leg.
Defender Edmond Tapsoba also conceded a penalty late on after fouling Harry Kane, and boss Xabi Alonso will know that his side are likely to exit the competition, especially as only three teams have fought back after losing a first leg by three goals to win the tie with a four-goal victory in the return leg at home.
Die Schwarzroten also lost 2-0 against Werder Bremen on Saturday in the league, and with just nine games remaining in the Bundesliga, it would be miraculous if they closed the gap to Bayern.
Alonso's side have won two, drawn two and lost two of their last six games in all competitions, losing consecutive matches for the first time since May 2023.
Leverkusen's defeat against Werder Bremen was their first at home in 18 games – the club triumphed 13 times in that period – and they have emerged victorious in each of their past four at BayArena in the Champions League without conceding.
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While opponents Bayern were aided by Die Schwarzroten's errors in the first leg, they should be praised for limiting the Bundesliga champions to just one big chance.
The visitors have scored three or more goals six times in their past 10 outings and have netted 26 goals in their 11 European matches this term.
Head coach Vincent Kompany has seen his side take on Leverkusen three times domestically this season, overseeing two draws in the league and one defeat in the DFB-Pokal while conceding just two goals across the three clashes.
It should be noted that Bayern were beaten 3-2 by VfL Bochum on Saturday in the Bundesliga despite initially taking a two-goal lead, though Joao Palhinha was sent off in the 42nd minute.
Prior to their defeat against Bochum, the Bavarians were unbeaten in 10 fixtures, emerging victorious on eight occasions.
Kompany's team have only lost two of their 12 most recent fixtures on the road, but they did lose 3-0 in the Champions League away from home against Feyenoord on January 22.
Team News
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Leverkusen defender Mukiele is suspended, while Jeanuel Belocian will miss the rest of the season, so perhaps Mario Hermoso, Piero Hincapie and Jonathan Tah could appear in a back three.
In midfield, Robert Andrich is a doubt as a result of illness, and his absence may lead Alonso to start Exequiel Palacios next to Granit Xhaka.
However, Leverkusen will not be able to select star forward Florian Wirtz until the beginning of April, and his injury could see Amine Adli join Nathan Tella and Victor Boniface in attack.
As for Bayern, Manuel Neuer is not scheduled to return until late March due to a calf injury, so expect Jonas Urbig to be stationed in goal behind centre-backs Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae.
Joshua Kimmich is certain to feature in midfield, and he may be joined in a double pivot by Leon Goretzka.
Kane will lead the forward line, and fans are likely to see him supported by Michael Olise, Kingsley Coman and Musiala.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Kovar; Mukiele, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Palacios, Grimaldo; Tella, Wirtz; Boniface
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Urbig; Stanisic, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Goretzka, Kimmich; Olise, Musiala, Coman; Kane
We say: Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Bayern Munich (Bayern win 4-1 on aggregate)
Bayer Leverkusen boast a formidable record at home, but they may struggle to make the most of their chances against Bayern without Wirtz.
It would be surprising if the hosts managed to prevent the visitors from scoring, and it is difficult to see anything outcome other than Bayern advancing.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
