With just two weeks until the 2023 Rugby World Cup gets underway, New Zealand and South Africa will lock horns in their final warm-up match this Friday before heading to France for the main tournament starting on September 8.
The 2023 Rugby Championship winners have been almost flawless over the last year, while their opponents, the reigning world champions, will be looking to finalise their team selection after making several changes in search of a winning combination over the last few months.
Match preview
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The All Blacks were excellent in the Rugby Championship last month, securing the title for a third consecutive season, beating each of the Southern Hemisphere's heavyweights in the shortened tournament.
Ian Foster's side opened that competition with a thumping 41-12 win over Argentina, but their best performance came a week later when they faced the Springboks in Auckland and overpowered them to secure a 35-20 win.
While that win did not mathematically win them the title, New Zealand were then firmly expected to go on to lift the trophy, and they lived up to that expectation the following matchweek when they bulldozed through the Wallabies 38-7.
Since then, the All Blacks played one World Cup warm-up match, which was against Australia at the start of the month, and while they did win that as well, it was by a margin smaller margin of just three points.
One of the key aspects behind New Zealand's positive performances is that they have a much more settled squad than most of the other nations, made up of a core group of players with a few dynamic youngsters like Rieko Ioane being brought in to bolster their attacking threat.
They have already overtaken France into second place in the world ranking with an 11-match unbeaten streak, and if they manage another solid win over the Springboks here, it would not be surprising to see them become the favourites to win the World Cup this year.
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Meanwhile, South Africa have played two warm-up matches already, and Jacques Nienaber will likely be fairly pleased with his side's progress since their Rugby Championship disappointment.
The Springboks went to Buenos Aires at the start of the month and secured a 24-13 win over the Pumas before heading to Cardiff, where they put on an even better performance, demolishing Wales 52-16.
With those results, the current world champions have now taken third place in the world rankings, registering six wins in their last seven matches, with their only loss in that time coming against this opponent.
With key personnel being injured, Nienaber has made wholesale changes to the squad over the last few months, but with a few big-name players returning at just the right time, the Springboks look set to go toe-to-toe with just about any team around.
While South Africa were fairly comprehensively beaten by the All Blacks last month, playing at Twickenham could level the playing fields significantly, and based on both sides' team selection, this is shaping up to be a titanic encounter.
New Zealand form (all competitions):
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
South Africa form (all competitions):
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
Team News
Foster has made a few changes to the side that played the final match of the Rugby Championship, with Brodie Retallick and Shannon Frizell ruled out through injury.
Sam Whitelock and Luke Jacobson will step in as replacements for Retallick and Frizell, while Sam Cane will make his second consecutive start following an ankle injury he picked up last month.
Nienaber has made several changes to the squad he put out last week, with Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert and Duane Vermeulen all being brought in to cope with the All Blacks pack.
Skipper Siya Kolisi will start his second match in a row following a fairly lengthy absence while in a tactical switch, winger Canan Moodie has been moved to outside centre, where he will form the midfield combination with Andre Esterhuizen.
New Zealand starting lineup: 15. Beauden Barrett, 14. Will Jordan, 13. Rieko Ioane, 12. Jordie Barrett, 11. Mark Telea, 10. Richie Mo'unga, 9. Aaron Smith, 8. Ardie Savea, 7. Sam Cane (c), 6. Luke Jacobson, 5. Scott Barrett, 4. Sam Whitelock, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 2. Dane Coles, 1. Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16. Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Fletcher Newell, 19. Josh Lord, 20. Tupou Vaa'i, 21. Dalton Papali'i, 22. Cam Roigard, 23. Anton Lienert-Brown
South Africa starting lineup: 15. Damian Willemse, 14. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13. Canan Moodie, 12. Andre Esterhuizen, 11. Makazole Mapimpi, 10. Manie Libbok, 9. Faf de Klerk, 8. Duane Vermeulen, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6. Siya Kolisi (c), 5. Franco Mostert, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Frans Malherbe, 2. Malcolm Marx, 1. Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16. Bongi Mbonambi, 17. Ox Nche, 18. Trevor Nyakane, 19. Jean Kleyn, 20. RG Snyman, 21. Marco van Staden, 22. Cobus Reinach, 23. Willie le Roux.
Head To Head
There have been 104 matches between these sides in the past, and the All Blacks have won on 62 occasions. South Africa have won 38 times, and four matches have ended in a draw.
Over the last 10 meetings, New Zealand have won six, South Africa have won three and one match ended level.
We say: New Zealand 24-21 South Africa
While New Zealand won the previous match fairly comfortably, it was on their home patch, and the encounter at Twickenham here could prove to level the playing fields. We expect a much closer match this time around and feel that the sides will likely be separated by a very slender margin.
No Data Analysis info
Devesh Jaganath
