Two sides boasting completely different form guides in Serie A will lock horns on Wednesday as AC Milan welcome Parma to the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
Both clubs played out 2-2 draws in their most recent fixtures, with Milan rescuing a point against Napoli while Parma stormed to a late comeback against Bologna at the weekend.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having recorded a memorable 4-2 victory over Scudetto-chasing Juventus a few days after thrashing fellow title hopefuls Lazio, Milan would have made the trip to Naples with the belief that they could overcome any opponent at this moment in time.
However, Milan had a 73rd-minute Franck Kessie penalty to thank as they salvaged a point in a four-goal thriller with Napoli, with Alexis Saelemaekers seeing red a few minutes from time for Stefano Pioli's side at the Stadio Olimpico.
Despite seeing their winning run come to an abrupt end, Milan are still in a good position for European qualification as they sit seventh in the table, now just two points off Napoli and four behind fifth-placed Roma.
Milan have hit the ground running since football in Italy was allowed to resume and have now gone seven unbeaten across all competitions, including four wins from their last six.
However, the two points that Pioli's men dropped in Naples has allowed eighth-placed Sassuolo to close the gap on Milan to just four points, and I Rossoneri must avoid even a hint of complacency at this crucial stage of the campaign given Sassuolo's remarkable run of form.
© Reuters
Parma, without the services of top scorer Andreas Cornelius, finally managed to arrest their slump as they rescued a point in a dramatic 2-2 draw with Bologna on Sunday.
Bologna seemed destined to cruise to a comfortable victory following early goals from Danilo and Roberto Soriano, but Jasmin Kurtic and Roberto Inglese both struck in added time to end Parma's four-game winless run.
Roberto D'Aversa's men were certainly cutting it close and cannot afford to leave it that late in their final few games, but the manner of their storming comeback should give the Parma faithful a slight sense of optimism at this crucial stage of the season.
Any faint hopes of a European berth for Parma have been wiped out since the restart, with I Crociati firmly in mid-table obscurity as they sit 12th in the table, 11 points clear of the drop zone and 12 adrift of the top six.
D'Aversa's men are now facing a Milan side whom they have not triumphed over since 2014, although Milan had to rely on an 89th-minute Theo Hernandez winner when the two clubs met earlier in the campaign.
AC Milan Serie A form: WWDWWD
Parma Serie A form: WLLLLD
Team News
© Reuters
Saelemaekers is suspended for this fixture owing to the red card he received against Napoli, but the young Belgian would have been unlikely to make the starting lineup anyway.
Pioli is currently without Samu Castillejo, Mateo Musacchio and Leo Duarte, although the Milan boss may be hesitant to shuffle the pack too much given his side's strong recent results.
However, Hakan Calhanoglu has struggled for match fitness recently, meaning Giacomo Bonaventura could be in line for a start in the middle of the park.
As for Parma, Cornelius is D'Aversa's solitary injury concern at the moment, but fellow striker Inglese has returned from the medical room at an ideal time for I Crociati.
Inglese's late equaliser against Bologna should be enough to earn him a start here, while Dejan Kulusevski, Gervinho and Antonino Barilla are also in line for recalls.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Conti, Kjaer, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Kessie, Bennacer; Paqueta, Bonaventura, Rebic; Ibrahimovic
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Darmian, Iacoponi, Alves, Gagliolo; Kulusevski, Hernani, Barilla, Gervinho; Kurtic; Inglese
We say: AC Milan 3-0 Parma
Milan's draw last time out will certainly feel like two points lost, whereas Parma's will feel more like one point gained. However, we do not expect Milan's setback to affect them greatly and are backing Pioli's men to get the job done in convincing fashion on Wednesday evening.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 59.14%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Parma had a probability of 19.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for a Parma win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
