AC Milan head into their fixture away at SPAL now sitting just six points adrift of fifth-placed Roma in the Serie A table.
However, ahead of the contest at Stadio Paolo Mazza, SPAL sit eight points adrift of safety, effectively leaving them needing at least three wins from their final 10 games to have any chance of survival.
Match preview
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If speculation is to be believed, Stefano Pioli will be replaced in the San Siro dugout at the end of the season unless he is able to revive Milan's season over the coming weeks.
Although I Rossoneri were unable to reach the Coppa Italia final, they have responded to holding Juventus to a goalless draw with two potentially-crucial victories in Serie A.
On the back of blitzing Lecce, Milan were able to register a 2-0 win over Roma at the weekend, moving the club closer to their most realistic target of fifth place.
With Lazio, Juventus and Napoli to come in quick succession, no-one at Milan will be getting carried away, but there are finally signs that they are performing to a level which they have been capable of since the middle of August.
Ante Rebic is showing signs of becoming an important player over the closing weeks having extended his scoring streak to six goals in eight appearances.
While everyone associated with the Italian giants will be optimistic about their prospects going forward, the same cannot be said of SPAL, who appear destined to return to the second tier.
Last season's finish of 13th spot came against the odds, and they have never been in contention to repeat that achievement this time around.
Despite forcing Napoli to raise their game at Stadio San Paolo on Sunday, SPAL ultimately succumbed to a 10th defeat in 12 matches since the turn of the year.
While still mathematically possible, Luigi Di Biagio will do everything that he can to inspire an unlikely survival bid, but SPAL will realistically be content with avoiding ending the season at the foot of the table.
SPAL Serie A form: LLLWLL
AC Milan Serie A form: LWDLWW
AC Milan form (all competitions): WDLDWW
Team News
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Having scored in five of his last seven matches, Andrea Petagna will continue to lead the line for SPAL.
Mattia Valoti is pushing for a recall after impressing after his half-time introduction against Napoli.
As for Milan, Lucas Paqueta could feature in a creative role behind Rebic, who is likely to be retained down the middle.
Alexis Saelemaekers has also emerged as an important option on the right-hand side, putting him in a position to take the place of Samu Castillejo.
Leo Duarte remains absent for Milan due to a hamstring problem.
SPAL possible starting lineup:
Letica; Cionek, Vicari, Felipe, Reca; Strefezza, Missiroli, Murgia, Fares; Valoti; Petagna
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Conti, Kjaer, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Kessie, Bennacur; Saelemaekers, Paqueta, Calhanoglu; Rebic
We say: SPAL 0-2 AC Milan
Milan have impressed since the resumption, and we can only see a relatively comfortable success for the visitors in this contest. However, having pushed some of the bigger clubs this season, do not be surprised if the home side are able to remain competitive.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 52.14%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 23.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest SPAL win was 1-0 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
