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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 42.94%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 1-0 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Swansea City | Draw | Leeds United |
30.59% ( 4.23) | 26.47% ( 2.27) | 42.94% ( -6.51) |
Both teams to score 51.28% ( -4.41) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.69% ( -7.08) | 53.31% ( 7.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.14% ( -6.33) | 74.86% ( 6.33) |
Swansea City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.02% ( -0.52) | 31.98% ( 0.52) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.56% ( -0.6) | 68.44% ( 0.6) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.38% ( -5.86) | 24.61% ( 5.86) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.88% ( -8.97) | 59.12% ( 8.97) |
Score Analysis |
Swansea City | Draw | Leeds United |
1-0 @ 8.97% ( 2.15) 2-1 @ 7.17% ( 0.57) 2-0 @ 5.12% ( 1.17) 3-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.42) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.22) Other @ 2.75% Total : 30.59% | 1-1 @ 12.58% ( 1.16) 0-0 @ 7.87% ( 1.97) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.5) Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.47% | 0-1 @ 11.03% ( 1.16) 1-2 @ 8.82% ( -0.74) 0-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.53) 1-3 @ 4.12% ( -1.21) 0-3 @ 3.61% ( -1) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.73) 1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.79) 0-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.66) Other @ 2.56% Total : 42.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Burnley | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 41 |
4 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | Watford | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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