Saturday's first leg is close to call, with Kewell's inexperienced Yokohama hosting an Al-Ain side keen to secure a second title. Marinos' strength at home — five straight wins at Nissan Stadium in the AFC Champions League and one loss in 14 in all competitions as hosts — should see them secure a marginal advantage over Crespo's team. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yokohama F Marinos win with a probability of 50.58%. A win for Al-Ain had a probability of 28.88% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Yokohama F Marinos win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.25%) and 2-0 (5.27%). The likeliest Al-Ain win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Yokohama F Marinos in this match.

Result
Yokohama F Marinos	Draw	Al-Ain
50.58% ( 0.21)	20.53% ( -0.05)	28.88% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 71.3% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.28% (

0.15)

26.71% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.87% (

0.19)

47.13% (

-0.19)

Yokohama F Marinos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.73% (

0.11)

11.27% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.13% (

0.24)

35.87% (

-0.24)

Al-Ain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.36% (

-0.01)

19.64% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.39% (

-0.01)

51.61% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Yokohama F Marinos 50.58%

Al-Ain 28.88%

Draw 20.53%

Yokohama F Marinos	Draw	Al-Ain
2-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 5.27% ( -0) 3-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.83% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.41% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.32% Total : 50.58%	1-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.99% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.71% Total : 20.53%	1-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 3.79% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.54% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.12% ( 0) Other @ 3.02% Total : 28.88%