Arsenal have a better chance of winning their first-ever Champions League title than they do of pipping runaway Premier League leaders Liverpool to the English top-flight crown, Gunners expert Charles Watts believes.
Mikel Arteta's men will close out 2024 with a nine-point gap to make up to Liverpool in the Premier League table, which will reduce to six if they overcome Brentford on New Year's Day, although they then would have played a game more.
However, only the Reds and Barcelona have out-performed Arsenal so far in this season's Champions League, where they occupy third place in the 36-team table after six league phase games, all but assuring themselves of a direct path to the last 16.
The Gunners will also pit their wits against Newcastle United in the EFL Cup semi-finals next year, in addition to beginning their FA Cup journey against crisis-hit Manchester United in the third round, and Watts has emphasised the importance of Arteta finally adding to his 2020 FA Cup crown and two Community Shields in North London.
"I think Arsenal can still have a good season without a trophy, but it's just absolutely not success," Watts told Sports Mole. "It's just another season that has gone by. If Arsenal don't get silverware, yes, they might end up finishing second in the league, they might do alright in the other competitions, but this team now is all about winning.
"They've got themselves to this position where the only way a season is going to be viewed as a success is if you end it with silverware. Will the Carabao Cup do that? I don't think so. It would be nice, but if all Arsenal do this season is win the Carabao Cup, I don't think you can look at that and think that's an overriding success because that's not what their ambition was.
'Arsenal have better chance of winning Champions League'
"They wanted to win this league. They felt they were good enough to win this league. I thought they were going to win the league, but Liverpool and Mo Salah, he's undeniable at the moment what he is doing and how Liverpool are reaping the benefits of that.
"Champions League would definitely be a success, and I wouldn't rule that out by any means. I think they've got a better chance of winning the Champions League than they do the Premier League. Hopefully by the time the business end of that competition comes around, Saka's back and can make an impact. The FA Cup would be nice, Champions League would be incredible, but some sort of silverware has to be won this season."
After running Manchester City incredibly close over the past two Premier League seasons, the consensus was that Arsenal would be right in the title mix for the third year running and ready to capitalise on any drop-off in form from the champions.
While Pep Guardiola's men are going through an unforeseen on-field crisis and have surely seen their reign of dominance come to an end, it is Arne Slot's Liverpool who have taken full advantage in the first half of the season rather than Arsenal, who have already dropped 18 points in the current campaign.
Stalemates with Fulham, Everton and Brighton & Hove Albion were particularly excruciating setbacks for Arteta's side, as was their 2-0 defeat away to Bournemouth, and Watts can only see Arsenal pulling off a sensational title comeback if Liverpool lose a couple of key men to severe injuries akin to Bukayo Saka's two-month absence for the Gunners.
"It's a tough one to assess," Watts said when reviewing Arsenal's display in the first half of the campaign. "They've not hit the heights that I was expecting them to hit over the first half of the season. I thought there was going to be a bit of continuity about them. But injuries have absolutely dominated this season so far for Arsenal and it's made things very, very difficult.
Arsenal "solid" not "terrible" in first half of season
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"It's not been a terrible start to the season by any means, but everything is viewed upon through what Liverpool are doing right now. Arsenal have had a solid start to the season, but they are playing catch up. Liverpool are far off in the distance at the moment because what they're doing is absolutely exceptional and it's showing no signs of slowing up.
"From Arsenal's point of view, you just want the second half of the season just to be a little bit calmer, get some players back. We know Saka's not back for a long, long time, but just don't lose any more players now. Have a bit of continuity about the squad and see where you get to.
"It's going to be hard. It was going to be hard with Saka fit to chase Liverpool down because Liverpool are so far ahead. And the challenge is just so much greater now without your go-to player. I think it's looking more and more like the only way Liverpool are going to fall off if they suddenly get struck down with a couple of massive injuries that they just can't deal with, which you don't know if that's ever going to happen or not.
"There's still a lot for Arsenal to play for, but you definitely want to see a second half of the season where they can just find a little bit more about themselves going forward, score some more goals, play some better football and see where it takes them."
While Watts accepts that the Premier League and/or Champions League are the ultimate prizes the Gunners should be fighting for this season, he refused to downplay the importance of simply winning one piece of domestic silverware.
Debate continues to rage among fans over whether the Community Shield is a real trophy, but when Arsenal's 2023 success in that curtain-raiser is taken out of the equation, they have not won a major honour since the 2019-20 FA Cup.
Watts: 'EFL Cup or FA Cup could be massive for Arsenal'
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Only three Arsenal players who were part of the matchday squad at Wembley that day are still at the club - Saka, Kieran Tierney and Fulham loanee Reiss Nelson - and a new group of players lifting a trophy together could be "massive", Watts believes.
"If Arsenal don't finish in the top two of the Premier League and Man City aren't there either, then I think that would be very disappointing for Arsenal. Silverware is just the all-important thing for them this season," he concluded.
"Even if they don't go on and win the Premier League or the Champions League, if they could get a Carabao Cup or an FA Cup to their name, that could be massive. It could give them the belief they need to go forward and get themselves over the line in the Premier League or the Champions League in the near future. It is vitally important that they get it.
"Declan Rice was talking about it after the game against Ipswich. He knows, the players know, this team is now ready to win trophies. It's just about actually doing it. That's what the next six months are going to be about."
Arsenal's last two Champions League league phase games will see them host Croatian outfit Dinamo Zagreb on January 22, seven days before a trip to La Liga upstarts Girona.
Ben Knapton
