Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 48.6%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
26.84% ( 1.44) | 24.56% ( 0.14) | 48.6% ( -1.59) |
Both teams to score 54.92% ( 0.87) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.56% ( 0.52) | 47.44% ( -0.52) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.34% ( 0.48) | 69.65% ( -0.48) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.28% ( 1.44) | 31.72% ( -1.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.86% ( 1.62) | 68.13% ( -1.62) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.43% ( -0.44) | 19.57% ( 0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.5% ( -0.72) | 51.49% ( 0.72) |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 6.68% ( 0.28) 2-0 @ 4.09% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.74% Total : 26.84% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.21% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.55% | 0-1 @ 10.12% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 9.48% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 8.26% ( -0.42) 1-3 @ 5.16% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 4.49% ( -0.29) 2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 2.1% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.15) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( 0) Other @ 2.99% Total : 48.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 41 |
2 | Porto | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 40 |
3 | Benfica | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 11 | 27 | 38 |
4 | Braga | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 16 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 30 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Casa Pia | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 23 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 19 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 18 |
12 | Estrela Amadora | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 16 |
13 | AVS | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 15 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
16 | Nacional | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 13 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 13 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |