Monaco will play their final match of 2021 on Wednesday with a chance to move into the top-five of the Ligue 1 standings when they host Rennes from Stade Louis II.
Les Monegasques advanced to the Round of 32 at the Coupe de France this past weekend, defeating Red Star 2-0, while Stade Rennais scored early and hung on against Lorient in their cup tie, winning 1-0.
Match preview
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Expectations were understandably high for Les Rouges-et-Blancs of Monaco heading into the 2021-22 campaign, after being in the hunt for the league title until the bitter end a season ago.
While they have had a few high moments domestically in this campaign, sitting in eighth place heading into their final Ligue 1 encounter this year, 19 points back of the leaders PSG, is not what anyone would have predicted from this team.
They may not be as high up in the table as they had hoped, but there are still plenty of matches to be played, and Niko Kovac and his team are not too far off the pace for a spot in Europe next season, as only six points currently separate them from Marseille, who are second.
Offensively this group have done a much better job in December when it comes to finishing their chances, scoring eight goals in their four matches played in all competitions.
This group may not be as explosive as the Monaco teams of the past who possessed the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Radamel Falcao, however, Kovac has them playing with a lot more balance and structure in all positions of the field.
It is that patient approach that enabled them to effectively shut down their three opponents in the group stage of the Europa League, and a method that they hope can keep a potent side like Rennes quiet on Wednesday, with Stade Rennais having scored the third-most goals in the league (33) to this point of the campaign.
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As they get set to close out 2021, Rennes are looking to end the year on a positive note, after losing two of their last three matches played in Ligue 1, including a 2-1 defeat to Nice in their previous encounter.
Keeping this talented team at bay is no easy feat as only three Ligue 1 sides (Marseille, Angers and Stade de Reims) have been able to hold them off the scoresheet through 90 minutes.
If you give Bruno Genesio's side even a half-chance, they will likely make you pay, scoring 11 goals in their five matches played in December, and tallying multiple times in 15 different games this season in all competitions.
They seem to be playing with a lot more composure away from home recently, winning three of their last four away fixtures in Ligue 1, which is as many as they managed in their first 15 matches played this year.
When taking the lead, this side know how to close out a game and not allow their opponents back into a match, collecting a clean sheet in each of their previous four games played in all competitions after scoring first.
When you look at how badly they have blown out some teams this season, it is easy to forget that they are a pretty sharp defensive unit as well, conceding the second-fewest amount of goals domestically so far this season (16).
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Team News
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Wissam Ben Yedder notched a brace over the weekend, enabling Les Monegasques to advance to the next round of the Coupe de France, and the Frenchman has been equally clinical in the league so far this season, currently tied for second in goals with nine, alongside Mbappe, Gaetan Laborde, Mohamed Bayo and Ludovic Ajorque.
Aleksandr Golovin is questionable for this contest with a hip problem, Cesc Fabregas and Benoit Badiashile are out with hamstring injuries, Krepin Diatta has a cruciate ligament rupture and Jean Marcelin has a torn muscle fibre.
Kevin Volland was involved in at least one of his team's goals in each of their first three matches played this month, and he leads Monaco in assists so far this year with five, one more than Caio Henrique and two ahead of Youssouf Fofana.
In this encounter, Jeremy Gelin is a big question mark for Rennes as the French defender has a cruciate ligament rupture.
Warmed Omari had the only goal in their Round of 64 victory over Lorient, his first goal for the senior side, while Martin Terrier is tied with Amine Gouiri and Habib Diallo for third in Ligue 1 goals so far this season with eight.
Genesio made one change to their starting 11 versus Nice, from the team who began their previous Ligue 1 match against Saint-Etienne as captain Hamari Traore replaced Lorenz Assignon on defence.
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Henrique, Disasi, Maripan, Aguilar; Tchouameni, Fofana; Martins, Volland, Diop; Ben Yedder
Rennes possible starting lineup:
Gomis; Assignon, Omari, Aguerd, Truffert; Majer, Martin, Sulemana; Bourigeaud, Laborde, Terrier
We say: Monaco 1-0 Rennes
Monaco have enjoyed plenty of success against Stade Rennais, beating them more than any other Ligue 1 opponent (48 times) in their history, and even if Golovin cannot go, their top attacking threats are starting to pick up their game, plus they are unbeaten in nine consecutive matches played at Stade Louis II.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 37.56%. A win for Rennes had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Rennes win was 0-1 (10.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
