We said: Lazio 2-0 Ludogorets Razgrad
Not only are Lazio in scintillating form, having won 11 of their last 12 matches, their fellow 'Eagles' rarely fare well on the road.
Ludogorets have won just two of 24 away games in the Europa League over recent years, and that trend will surely continue at Stadio Olimpico.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 50.05%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 24.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Ludogorets Razgrad win it was 0-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.