With a place in the Europa League quarter-finals up for grabs, Atalanta BC and Bayer Leverkusen get their last 16 tie underway on Thursday night.
The teams meet in Bergamo, with the hosts starting to falter in domestic competition and their visitors in high spirits following a draw at Bayern Munich last weekend.
Match preview
© Reuters
Though eliminated from the Champions League group stage late last year, Atalanta have continued to impress in continental football this season: scoring 17 goals so far and scoring at least twice on all but one occasion.
Despite a recent downturn in Serie A, the Bergamaschi took apart Greek champions Olympiacos 5-1 on aggregate in last month's playoff round, into which they dropped following their exit from Europe's elite competition.
Following a 2-1 win in Italy, Gian Piero Gasperini's side cruised to a 3-0 away victory in the return leg - with makeshift striker Ruslan Malinovskyi netting a double - and are now faced by a potentially far tougher proposition in the last 16.
The Nerazzurri will welcome their in-form Bundesliga visitors to Bergamo having started to lose their way, as after crashing out of the Coppa Italia, they have gone on to win just one of their next four league games.
After a 1-0 loss to Roma on Saturday, Atalanta have recorded three draws and four defeats from their last eight domestic fixtures, so they now face a springtime scrap to return to the Champions League through a top four finish.
Sitting fifth in the Serie A standings, they return to continental action having also won only two of their last eight European ties at their Lombardy headquarters. Ahead of Thursday's first leg, though, the club has never before lost at home in either the Europa League or UEFA Cup across a total of 10 matches.
© Reuters
Compared to their opponents, Leverkusen took a very different route to this stage of the competition, as they spent the autumn progressing quite serenely through Europa League Group G - topping a section including Real Betis, Celtic and Ferencvaros.
Thereby qualifying directly for the last 16, the 2002 Champions League finalists resume their continental commitments amid a positive patch of form domestically; strengthening their hold on a top-four spot.
Saturday's 1-1 draw at leaders and perennial champions Bayern Munich keeps Die Werkself third in the Bundesliga table - though they could even have taken all three points had their finishing been more clinical in the Bavarian capital - and they can now turn their attention to the task of lifting the club's first European trophy since 1988.
Winners of the UEFA Cup in that year, Leverkusen have been in impressive form on their more recent travels across the continent, having won six of their last 10 European away matches.
A tally of 17 points from a possible 24 to begin the second half of their Bundesliga campaign indicates that Gerardo Seoane's side are upwardly mobile this year, and will travel to Italy in hope of taking a lead into next week's return leg.
Not only that, but a magnificent scoring rate of three goals per game since the winter break could help overcome opponents who have finally started to lose their own touch in the final third.
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
After switching to a back four on Saturday, it remains to be seen whether Atalanta coach Gian Piero Gasperini will stick or twist, and his decision may be swayed by Rafael Toloi's return from suspension.
The Nerazzurri still have star striker Duvan Zapata and veteran forward Josip Ilicic absent from their squad, and in the former's absence, a series of players have recently filled in up front as a 'false nine'.
Aleksei Miranchuk did so without much success against Roma, but either Jeremie Boga or Mario Pasalic could supplant him on Thursday. Out-of-form striker Luis Muriel provides a more conventional option if required.
While their hosts have their captain back from a ban, Leverkusen will be without the suspended Kerem Demirbay in Bergamo.
The midfielder joins 20-goal top scorer Patrik Schick on the sidelines, so either Lucas Alario or Saturday's surprise selection Amine Adli should start alongside Moussa Diaby and teenage star Florian Wirtz up front.
Having made his debut as a substitute against Bayern, recent signing Sardar Azmoun is an option, too, for Gerardo Seoane, who is likely to revert to a four-man defence.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Toloi, Demiral, Djimsiti; Hateboer, De Roon, Freuler, Maehle; Pasalic, Koopmeiners; Boga
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Frimpong, Tah, Tapsoba, Bakker; Aranguiz, Andrich, Palacios; Diaby, Alario, Wirtz
We say: Atalanta BC 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen
The combination of declining form and a modest home record means that Atalanta are not the same well-oiled machine that impressed Europe with their attractive style and odds-defying achievements.
Therefore, a more fluent and confident Leverkusen will head into the second leg on level terms, with their incisive forward line capable of frightening even the tightest of defences.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
