In sharp contrast to their domestic form, Atalanta BC won again in Europe this week, so now seek to get their Serie A campaign back on track with victory over Bologna on Sunday.
Despite four successive continental wins taking them into the Europa League quarter-finals, the Bergamaschi have slid to sixth in the league standings following a goalless draw with Genoa last week, while their hosts continue to toil in mid-table mediocrity.
Match preview
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In danger of dropping off the pace in the race for a top four finish, Atalanta will seek just a second Serie A win in 10 matches when they travel to Emilia-Romagna this weekend, and they even find themselves embroiled in a scrap for a return to any European competition.
Due to such faltering form, La Dea now sit eight points behind fourth-placed Juventus with a game still in hand, but Lazio, Roma and Fiorentina have all closed in from behind and are direct rivals for a finish that at least guarantees access to the Europa League next term.
Since their demotion to that competition after exiting the Champions League, Gian Piero Gasperini's side have taken to the lower level with aplomb - reaching the last eight on Thursday after completing a 4-2 aggregate victory over Bundesliga high-fliers Bayer Leverkusen.
Jeremie Boga's late strike sealed a 1-0 win on the night for the Nerazzurri, who swept past Greek champions Olympiacos in the previous round, and some overdue silverware could yet be secured by Calcio's consistent overachievers.
However, head coach 'Gasp' will be concerned about the lack of attacking rhythm in his team of late, and following a second goalless draw of the season against his old club Genoa last week, Atalanta have failed to score in nearly 200 minutes of Serie A football.
Indeed, without a goal in each of their last three away games domestically, they could now go four in a row without netting for the first time since November 2015 if they fail to find the target at Dall'Ara.
The ongoing absence of star striker Duvan Zapata has certainly played a part in such a decline, but the Bergamo outfit at least have an impressive away record to reflect on before heading to Bologna.
With nine wins and just two losses from 14 league games on the road, Gasperini will expect to see his side come out on top against a team that held them 0-0 in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
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Fifteen points and six places below their visitors this weekend, Bologna have struggled since the beginning of December and are in danger of finishing a once promising campaign outside the top half of the table.
Sinisa Mihajlovic's side sit in 12th spot following a 1-0 defeat at Fiorentina last time out, with Kevin Bonifazi's first-half dismissal shaping the game in their opponents' favour before the unlikely figure of Lucas Torreira finally put them to the sword with a 70th-minute strike.
That followed a disappointing draw with last-placed Salernitana and a stalemate with Torino, and the Rossoblu have not only failed to score in both of their last two Serie A matches but have also won just once in 2022 so far.
A case for the Felsinei cannot be made on the basis of precedent either, as they have only won one of their last 12 top-flight matches against Atalanta.
Therefore, they will have to hope the Bergamaschi's recent travails in the final third persist for another 90 minutes, allowing them to strike on the counter through ex-Atalanta pair Riccardo Orsolini and Musa Barrow - two of Bologna's top three players regarding goal involvements this season.
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Team News
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After a quick turnaround from the Rhine to Emilia-Romagna, Atalanta coach Gian Piero Gasperini may be tempted to rotate some of the starting XI that claimed victory on Thursday.
Also expected to be ruled out of Italy's World Cup playoff later this month, captain Rafael Toloi came off injured in the first half against Leverkusen, so Berat Djimsiti is set to replace him in the visitors' back three.
Marten de Roon returns to the squad following suspension last weekend, but wing-back Davide Zappacosta must now serve a one-match ban.
As Josip Ilicic, Aleksei Miranchuk and Duvan Zapata remain unavailable, January signing Jeremie Boga could replace Luis Muriel up front, as the Colombian has failed to score in each of his last five league games - representing his worst such streak since 2019.
Bologna, meanwhile, prepare for Atalanta's visit without Kingsley Michael, Nicolas Dominguez and Federico Santander due to injury, while Kevin Bonifazi and Nicola Sansone are both suspended.
In better news for Sinisa Mihajolovic, the home side welcomed wing-back Lorenzo De Silvestri into full training during the week, and he should start alongside Arthur Theate, who returns from a ban to take Bonifazi's place in the back three.
Up front, Marko Arnautovic has scored each of the Felsinei's last three Serie A goals; the last player to manage four in a row was the club's current general manager Marco Di Vaio, back in 2008.
Bologna possible starting lineup:
Skorupski; Soumaoro, Medel, Theate; De Silvestri, Schouten, Svanberg, Hickey; Orsolini, Arnautovic, Barrow
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Demiral, Palomino, Djimsiti; Hateboer, De Roon, Freuler, Pezzella; Pasalic; Malinovskyi, Boga
We say: Bologna 0-1 Atalanta BC
Both Atalanta and Bologna have failed to score in five Serie A games so far in 2022 - only relegation candidates Genoa have fared worse in that regard - and the visitors could be suffering from a European hangover too.
Therefore, a tightly-contested game may have to be decided by a moment of magic from La Dea's underperforming cast of attacking stars.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 49.07%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 27.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Bologna win was 2-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Atalanta BC in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Atalanta BC.
