Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 50.42%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 23.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (8.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.