Central Coast Mariners play host to Newcastle Jets on Tuesday knowing that victory will move them to the brink of securing third position in the A-League standings.
Meanwhile, the visitors need at least four points from their final three matches to have a chance of moving off bottom spot before the end of the campaign.
Match preview
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Having dominated the early stages of the season, Central Coast Mariners would have hoped to still occupy first spot at this stage of the campaign.
However, despite their extended blip throughout March and April, two wins from their last three games have moved the club to the brink of securing a place in the A-League Finals Series.
Alen Stajcic will still want to finish as high in the table as possible, and third position should be achieved with home fixtures against the struggling Jets and Western United to come.
While the Mariners are not freely scoring goals at one end, they have conceded just three times in five matches at the other, one of which came away at champions Melbourne City.
Nevertheless, Stajcic will want to see his team improve in the final third against opponents who look increasingly likely to end the campaign in bottom place.
Melbourne Victory's stunning 6-1 triumph away at Western United has left Newcastle Jets facing a four-point deficit with just two games remaining.
Given that Craig Deans's outfit have failed to emerge victorious in their last 14 matches, their chances appear non-existent, but they did push the Mariners all the way as recently as May 15.
The Jets did the same against Brisbane Roar in their most recent fixture, getting back on level terms before eventually succumbing 2-1 to their fifth-placed opponents.
Although Deans will not want to deviate from the approach to that game, the Jets have every reason to throw caution to the wind as they attempt to end the season on a high.
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Team News
Barring any late fitness issues, Stajcic will almost certainly select the same Mariners XI which started the win at Macarthur.
While Marco Urena has not netted in four games, the Costa Rican forward has proven his value since recently returning from suspension.
Despite having 10 days to prepare for this contest, Deans is likely to make a number of alterations to his starting lineup.
Lucas Mauragis and Ramy Najjarine could both be handed recalls, while Apostolos Stamatelopoulos is also an alternative down the middle of the attack.
However, 16-year-old Archie Goodwin may remain among the replacements, despite trust being shown in him in recent fixtures.
Central Coast Mariners possible starting lineup:
Birighitti; Nigro, Tongyik, Rowles, Clisby; Nisbit, Stensness, Bozanic, De Silva; Urena, Simon
Newcastle Jets possible starting lineup:
Duncan; Koutroumbis, Boogaard, Topor-Stanley; Millar, Doherty, Stirgate, Mauragis; Hoffman, O'Donovan, Ali Abbas
We say: Central Coast Mariners 3-1 Newcastle Jets
Having improved of late, the Jets will believe that they are capable of avoiding defeat on Tuesday. However, the Mariners also appear to be on an upward trajectory, leading us to predict a comfortable victory for the home team.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 43.39%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 31.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 0-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
