Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 23, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Stadio di Cornaredo
Lugano3 - 4Fenerbahce
El Wafi (4'), Bislimi (64'), Valenzuela (90+4')
El Wafi (29'), Papadopoulos (59'), Bottani (69'), Grgic (71'), Zanotti (77')
El Wafi (29'), Papadopoulos (59'), Bottani (69'), Grgic (71'), Zanotti (77')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Lugano 2-1 Grasshopper
Saturday, July 20 at 5pm in Swiss Super League
Saturday, July 20 at 5pm in Swiss Super League
Last Game: Fenerbahce 5-1 Hull City
Thursday, July 18 at 6.30pm in Club Friendlies 1
Thursday, July 18 at 6.30pm in Club Friendlies 1
We said: Lugano 1-3 Fenerbahce
Under the management of a proven winner in Europe, Fener are likely to take a first-leg lead back to Istanbul: Lugano's defensive record was not impressive last season, when they also made a tame exit from the Conference League. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 58.16%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 20.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.46%) and 0-1 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Lugano win it was 2-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | Fenerbahce |
20.86% ( -5.13) | 20.98% ( -2.93) | 58.16% ( 8.07) |
| Both teams to score 59.99% ( 3.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.56% ( 7.84) | 37.44% ( -7.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.34% ( 7.96) | 59.66% ( -7.96) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.7% ( -0.05) | 31.3% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.35% ( -0.06) | 67.65% ( 0.06) |
| Fenerbahce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.32% ( 5.46) | 12.69% ( -5.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 61.12% ( 10.23) | 38.88% ( -10.23) |
| Score Analysis |
Lugano 20.86%
Fenerbahce 58.16%
Draw 20.98%
| Lugano | Draw | Fenerbahce |
| 2-1 @ 5.53% ( -1.02) 1-0 @ 4.61% ( -1.98)2-0 @ 2.68% ( -1.16)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.4)3-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.45)Other @ 2.65% Total : 20.86% | 1-1 @ 9.52% ( -1.73) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 3.97% ( -1.7)3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.29)Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.98% | 1-2 @ 9.83% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 8.46% ( 0.21)0-1 @ 8.2% ( -1.48)1-3 @ 6.77% ( 1.3)0-3 @ 5.82% ( 1.13)2-3 @ 3.93% ( 0.75)1-4 @ 3.49% ( 1.16)0-4 @ 3.01% ( 1)2-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.67)1-5 @ 1.44% ( 0.65)0-5 @ 1.24% ( 0.56)Other @ 3.94% Total : 58.16% |
How you voted: Lugano vs Fenerbahce
Lugano
8.1%Draw
6.5%Fenerbahce
85.4%123
Form Guide
