Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 41.92%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.