Bayern Munich Women travel to Kingsmeadow on Sunday with a 2-1 aggregate lead over hosts Chelsea Women, with both teams aiming to reach their first Women's Champions League final.
All three previous matches between the two sides have ended in home victories, and Emma Hayes will be hoping that record continues this weekend.
Match preview
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The first-leg tie brought an early goal for the German side as Sydney Lohmann pounced on an error from Chelsea goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger to put Jens Scheuer's side 1-0 up inside the first 15 minutes.
Berger came out to claim a cross delivered by Hanna Glas but the ball slipped through the 30-year-old's hands, a rare mistake from the keeper who has been in such vital form for the Blues.
Former Bayern Munich captain Melanie Leupolz registered the equaliser for the London club, and scored a potentially crucial away goal which Hayes reiterated in her post-match reaction.
Glas restored Bayern's lead 10 minutes after half time, but Chelsea will take positives from the game in that they created enough chances to score more and as long as the Blues keep a clean sheet at Kingsmeadow, they will only require one goal to win this tie overall.
Chelsea's home record is excellent in recent times, only losing once since December 2019, although Bayern travel to London having scored 10 goals in their last three Champions League away games.
Hayes's side are still in the quest for a trio of titles this season as they play Everton in the FA Cup final on May 16 and also currently sit top of the Women's Super League with two games to play.
The league title could be wrapped up in the middle of next week if Manchester City fail to beat Birmingham City on Sunday and Chelsea beat Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday.
Bayern are also closing in on the Frauen Bundesliga and play second-placed Wolfsburg a week after this second-leg tie against Chelsea, and if Bayern collect three points from the reigning champions they will go five points clear at the top with two games to play.
If the German side reach the Champions League final and win their domestic league it could be classed as their most successful season in history and could be the base for an era of Bayern challenging at the top of the women's game.
With both sides in the hunt for silverware this season, the Champions League is the biggest prize of all and the tightness of the first-leg result has set up another close-to-call meeting between the English and German league leaders.
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Team News
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Chelsea captain Magdalena Eriksson missed the first leg against Bayern last weekend but there is more hope that the Swedish international will be passed fit for Sunday's encounter.
Fellow defender Maren Mjelde continues to be absent for the Blues, who will need to cancel out errors in their own 18-yard box that lead to Bayern's goals in the first leg to increase their chances of progressing to the Champions League final.
Bayern stalwart goalkeeper Laura Benkarth made her return to Scheuer's side last Sunday after suffering a knee injury in early April, and the German side hindered Chelsea who had scored three against Wolfsburg in their away game in the quarter-final.
Lohmann also returned for the Frauen Bundesliga leaders and she proved to be welcomed back into the side after scoring the opening goal in the first leg.
No new injury or suspension concerns for Scheuer will ensure the strongest possible Bayern side arrive at Kingsmeadow on Sunday to defend their 2-1 aggregate lead.
Chelsea Women possible starting lineup:
Berger; Carter, Bright, Eriksson, Andersson; Ji, Leupolz; Cuthbert, Harder, Kirby; Kerr
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Benkarth; Ilstedt, Hegering, Simon, Laudehr; Magull, Zadrazil, Lohmann, Glas; Beerensteyn, Buhl
We say: Chelsea Women 1-0 Bayern Munich
Hayes has strongly said that her side will need to focus on what they have done so well this season, that being concentration, and they only need one goal without reply from Bayern to secure a place in their first Champions League final.
The crucial away goal Chelsea claimed in the first leg gives the Blues a strong foothold in this tie and Bayern only managed to score one goal away from home against Rosengard in the last round, potentially giving the English league leaders confidence of a clean sheet on Sunday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea Women win with a probability of 41.32%. A win for Bayern Munich had a probability of 37.24% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.11%) and 3-2 (4.65%). The likeliest Bayern Munich win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea Women would win this match.
