Colombia will look to keep their slim World Cup 2022 qualification hopes alive on Thursday, when they take on Bolivia in Barranquilla.
A seven-game winless run has seen La Tricolor drop four points behind the top five with just two games left to play.
Match preview
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With 13 points from their first nine games in qualification, Colombia sat in a relatively strong position to push on and secure their progression to the World Cup in the second half of the campaign.
However, they have been unable to add to their tally of three wins since the halfway stage, earning just four points from their last seven games to quickly drop outside of the top five.
Just as concerning for Reinaldo Rueda, all of those points have come from goalless draws with Uruguay, Brazil, Ecuador and Paraguay, and, while the first two may be creditable points, La Tricolor have now failed to find the net in seven straight qualifying matches.
On the back of the most recent draw with Paraguay, Colombia headed into the January round of fixtures needing a change in fortunes, but their position instead worsened as they suffered 1-0 defeats at the hands of Peru and Argentina.
Now sitting seventh in the group, La Tricolor's best hope is a fifth-placed finish which would grant them access to a playoff for a place in the World Cup, but that is still highly improbable with a four-point gap to bridge to Peru in just two matches.
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They take on a Bolivia side who have seen their qualification hopes all but disappear despite a notable improvement late last year.
La Verde headed into the campaign as major underdogs, and they looked almost out of contention after 10 games with just six points.
However, Cesar Farias's side fought back valiantly, beating Peru 1-0 and thrashing Paraguay 4-0 in October before they returned to action the following month with a 3-0 beating of a strong Uruguay side after a loss to Peru.
That upturn in form saw La Verde move onto 15 points from 14 outings, retaining a chance of sneaking into the top five, but they were unable to add to that after the turn of the year, suffering defeats at the hands of Venezuela and Chile.
While their chances of a fifth-placed finish are still mathematically alive, Farias's men will not be overly hopeful knowing that another dropping of points or a victory for any side between fifth and seventh in the final two rounds of fixtures would see qualification move out of reach.
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Team News
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Colombian superstar James Rodriguez has recently returned to the national setup after a long hiatus, and he should be a creative hub in midfield.
New Liverpool winger Luis Diaz will operate on the left flank, while Rueda will continue to search for the best striker to lead the line, with Luis Muriel, Miguel Borja and Rafael Borre all struggling for goals recently.
Everton centre-back Yerry Mina has missed out on the squad due to an injury, leaving William Tesillo to partner Davinson Sanchez at the heart of the back four, while Wilmar Barrios and Mateus Uribe remain key men in the engine room.
Given their almost certain inability to progress, Farias has opted to focus on calling up younger players to his Bolivia side, with experienced attackers Marcelo Moreno and Juan Carlos Arce left out.
Leonel Justiniano is also absent, leaving Moises Villarroel to command the midfield alongside Ramiro Vaca, while Bruno Miranda will take on more attacking responsibility in the absence of record scorer Moreno.
Colombia possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Medina, Tesillo, Sanchez, Mojica; Barrios, Uribe; Cuadrado, Rodriguez, Diaz; Muriel
Bolivia possible starting lineup:
Viscarra; Sagredo, Quinteros, Haquin; Enoumba, Villarroel, R Vaca, Fernandez; H Vaca; Miranda, Abrego
We say: Colombia 1-0 Bolivia
Colombia's eye-catching goal drought is certainly a cause for concern for Rueda, but we back them to put an end to that against a young Bolivia side.
While we do not expect La Tricolor to convincingly dispose of their visitors, given the lack of momentum, they should have enough quality to scrape over the line.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 67.31%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 9.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.88%) and 3-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.61%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.