Copa Libertadores | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Sep 8, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Flamengo2 - 1Velez Sarsfield
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Flamengo 1-1 Ceara
Sunday, September 4 at 3pm in Brasileiro
Sunday, September 4 at 3pm in Brasileiro
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 23 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 25 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | Internacional | 25 | 15 | 43 |
Last Game: Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Newell's OB
Saturday, September 3 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division
Saturday, September 3 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 22 | Central Cordoba | 12 | -8 | 11 |
We said: Flamengo 3-0 Velez Sarsfield (Flamengo advances 7-0 on aggregate).
Flamengo have never lost a two-leg semi-final in this competition and have not conceded four goals in a match since a 4-0 domestic defeat to Atletico Mineiro on November 8, 2020. When you combine that with the fact that the Argentines are winless in their last six matches in all competitions, there is every reason to suggest that the clock will strike midnight on the Velez Sarsfield Cinderella story this week. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 62.81%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 13.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.41%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.78%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (6.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Flamengo | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
62.81% ( -0.05) | 24.04% ( 0.01) | 13.14% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 35.96% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.44% ( 0.04) | 61.56% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.59% ( 0.03) | 81.41% ( -0.03) |
| Flamengo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.49% ( -0) | 19.5% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.61% ( -0.01) | 51.38% ( 0.01) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.67% ( 0.1) | 55.32% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 11.92% ( 0.06) | 88.07% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
Flamengo 62.8%
Velez Sarsfield 13.15%
Draw 24.04%
| Flamengo | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 17.63% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 14.41% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.85% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.9% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.38% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.18% Total : 62.8% | 0-0 @ 10.78% ( -0.02) 1-1 @ 10.44% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 24.04% | 0-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.78% Total : 13.15% |
How you voted: Flamengo vs Velez Sarsfield
Flamengo
88.9%Draw
7.4%Velez Sarsfield
3.7%27
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2022 1.30am
Apr 21, 2021 1.30am
Velez Sarsfield
2-3
Flamengo
Form Guide
