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Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 1, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estadio José Amalfitani
Flamengo

Velez Sarsfield
0 - 4
Flamengo


Gomez (54'), de los Santos (68'), Seoane (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Pedro (32', 61', 83'), Ribeiro (45+1')
Barbosa (34'), Maia (67'), Luiz (74'), Pereira (84'), Pulgar (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Velez Sarsfield and Flamengo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Velez Sarsfield

Last Six:
Last Game: Independiente 1-1 Velez Sarsfield
Sunday, August 28 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Flamengo

Last Six:
Last Game: Botafogo 0-1 Flamengo
Sunday, August 28 at 10pm in Brasileiro

We said: Velez Sarsfield 1-2 Flamengo

 Experience plays a major role in games of this magnitude and Flamingo boast the more experienced crop of players at this level. We are backing the away side to fend off the threat of their hosts and secure a narrow win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 56.95%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 17.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.96%) and 1-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 1-0 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.

Result
Velez SarsfieldDrawFlamengo
17.97% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07) 25.07% (-0.02 -0.02) 56.95% (0.094000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 42.62% (-0.07 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.87% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)58.13% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.21% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)78.79% (0.015999999999991 0.02)
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.56% (-0.106 -0.11)46.44% (0.104 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.94% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)82.06% (0.080000000000013 0.08)
Flamengo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.58% (0.027999999999992 0.03)20.42% (-0.028000000000002 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.14% (0.044000000000004 0.04)52.86% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Velez Sarsfield 17.97%
    Flamengo 56.94%
    Draw 25.07%
Velez SarsfieldDrawFlamengo
1-0 @ 7.27% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
2-1 @ 4.43% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-0 @ 2.79% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-1 @ 1.13% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 17.97%
1-1 @ 11.55% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.48% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.52% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.52%
Total : 25.07%
0-1 @ 15.06% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-2 @ 11.96% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 9.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 6.34% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
1-3 @ 4.86% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-4 @ 2.52% (0.011 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.93% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.86% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 56.94%

How you voted: Velez Sarsfield vs Flamengo

Velez Sarsfield
19.4%
Draw
19.4%
Flamengo
61.3%
31
Head to Head
May 28, 2021 1am
Flamengo
0-0
Velez Sarsfield

Gerson (21'), Henrique (32'), Caio (82')

Ortega (57'), Caseres (86')
Ortega (90+5')
Apr 21, 2021 1.30am
Velez Sarsfield
2-3
Flamengo
Janson (21', 54')
Caseres (27'), Martin Lucero (35'), Hoyos (60'), Almada (66'), Galdames (85')
Mancuello (86')
Arao (43'), Barbosa (62' pen.), De Arrascaeta (80')
Henrique (46'), Alves (55'), Batista de Souza (73'), Henrique (83'), Diego (90+3')
rhs 2.0
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