The two teams at the bottom of the CONCACAF World Cup 2022 qualifying standings will look to get their campaigns back on the right track as Costa Rica host Jamaica from Estadio National de Costa Rica in San Jose on Wednesday.
Los Ticos conceded a penalty in injury time in the first half of their 1-0 defeat to Mexico over the weekend, while the Reggae Boyz are still searching for their first point in the third qualifying round after losing 3-0 to Panama.
Match preview
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The opening two matches for Luis Fernando Suarez and his Costa Rican side have been anything but memorable as time appears to be catching up to this ageing team.
They have not scored a goal in their last four competitive fixtures and have only fired one shot on target in the final round of qualifying, as they have rarely looked threatening no matter who is on the pitch.
Suarez has tried tinkering with the lineup, employing a 4-1-4-1 formation in their opener and also keeping striker Joel Campbell out of the starting 11 in both games, but despite the tactical shifts, his team still look as predictable as they did in the Gold Cup.
For their second match over the weekend against Mexico, they employed a 4-2-3-1 formation, which was also relatively ineffective, although they did have a lot more of the ball than in their opener.
While this team began the final round of qualifying for the 2018 finals with two wins, they can take solace in knowing that they have been in their current position before, during the final stage of CONCACAF qualifying in 2014, when they only had one point in their first two games but lost only one match the rest of the way and qualified for the finals in second place.
The last time they faced the Jamaicans in their final group stage game in July at the Gold Cup, Los Ticos were able to come away with a 1-0 win, although they did have some anxious moments in the latter stages of that match after going a man down and barely hanging on.
For Jamaica, the dream of making it to the World Cup for only the second time in their history is starting to turn into a nightmare.
Over the weekend, they could not stay with the Panamanians, who were quick in transition and a lot better in maintaining possession in the middle of the field.
In the final stage of the 2014 qualification campaign, Jamaica fell apart - managing only five draws and finishing bottom of their group - and the way things have been going for this team lately, they could be relegated to playing the role of the spoiler once again.
Jamaica have not won a game in the final stage of World Cup qualifying since the 2002 campaign, when they beat Trinidad and Tobago 1-0 in their opener but still finished in fifth in the group and well short of making it to the finals.
Theodore Whitmore has gone with a 4-4-2 in both matches thus far, putting striker Cory Burke in an attacking midfield role rather than his usual place as a central striker, which he typically plays at club level with the Philadelphia Union.
Whitmore has had a difficult time playing and coaching games in Costa Rica, losing 9-0 in a friendly to them in 1999 and going scoreless in his only two meetings against them as a coach, both of which were losses.
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Team News
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There were three changes to the Costa Rican starting 11 against Mexico from their opener with Ronald Matarrita starting in midfield rather than Ariel Lassiter, Bryan Ruiz took the spot of Jimmy Marin and Jonathan Moya began the match as the lone striker instead of Manfred Ugalde.
Goalkeeper Keylor Navas needs only five more appearances to hit 100 for his international career, while Fernan Faerron and Kenneth Vargas are still looking to earn their first caps with the national side.
Kendall Waston appeared as a substitute versus Mexico after sitting out of their opener, while Ricardo Blanco and Bryan Oviedo have featured as full-backs in both matches of this round after being excluded from the Gold Cup squad.
Whitmore changed up his attacking pair against Panama, going with Bobby Reid and Michail Antonio, instead of Shamar Nicholson and Romario Williams, with Liam Moore and Ethan Pinnock replacing Adrian Mariappa and Damion Lowe in central defence.
Ravel Morrison took the spot of Anthony Grant, and Daniel Johnson replaced Devon Williams in midfield.
Even though he has conceded four goals in his last two matches, expect to see Andre Blake get the start in goal, given that their two reserve keepers, Dillon Barnes and Dennis Taylor, have only two international caps between them.
Costa Rica possible starting lineup:
Navas; Blanco, Duarte, Calvo, Waston; Lassiter, Borges; Leal, Ruiz, Moya; Campbell
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Powell, Fisher, Brown, Lawrence; Turgott, Flemmings, Walker, D. Williams; Burke, Nicholson
We say: Costa Rica 2-0 Jamaica
Expect to see a lot of desperation from both sides in this one, but Costa Rica will probably look more comfortable playing at home and knowing that they have had a lot of success against the Reggae Boyz, while this team also understand that qualifying for the World Cup is a marathon and not a sprint.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Costa Rica win with a probability of 42.34%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Costa Rica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.4%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
