DC United return to Audi Field in search of their first win against the Houston Dynamo since 2014 when the two sides face each other in Major League Soccer action on Saturday.
The Black and Red ended the month of April with a 3-0 defeat on the road to the Columbus Crew, while Orange Crush have dropped consecutive fixtures by a 2-1 score.
Match preview
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The traditional new coach bump lasted just a single game in the US capital, as interim boss Chad Ashton saw his side struggle defensively at Lower.com Field, conceding three goals on the only three efforts on target from Columbus.
DC return to Audi Field, where they have had a mixture of good and poor outings in 2022, scoring three times in their first and last home fixture but losing their three matches in between, while failing to score in two of those encounters.
Ahead of the game against the Crew, Ashton talked about his players looking refreshed, full of energy and upbeat, although that was not evident from the opening whistle last Saturday.
After two matches in charge, it seems as though their interim boss has not veered away too much from what his predecessor, Hernan Losada, was trying to do tactically, as we have seen the Black and Red press and counter numerous times.
That approach can make them a reasonably entertaining side to watch when they can do it effectively, although DC do so much of it that it seems to wear them out in the latter stages of a game.
There are some quality attacking players on this side who can bury their opportunities in the final third if they only had more creativity in the midfield to get them into those good scoring positions.
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Based on their recent results, it may not look like there has been much progress made in Houston, but when you look at the big picture there are plenty of encouraging signs that the Dynamo are headed in the right direction.
Orange Crush drew first blood in every match last month, although they failed to maintain the lead in their previous two fixtures against Dallas and Austin FC.
Under Paulo Nagamura, we have seen them show a lot more organization and structure, conceding a goal or fewer in six of nine fixtures this year.
So far in 2022, they have done a good job at maintaining balance, not getting too up or too down, and they will want to ensure that continues as they face a critical portion of the regular season.
One noticeable difference under Nagamura is the amount of energy they have been able to conserve throughout 90 minutes, looking a lot more energized late in games this season after appearing worn out under the high press system of previous manager Tab Ramos.
Creating chances consistently has been a struggle for this team, who have only scored two second-half goals in their previous four MLS affairs.
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Team News
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Taxiarchis Fountas made a second successive start for DC last weekend after notching a brace in a 3-2 win against the New England Revolution, while Ola Kamara returned to the lineup after being suspended for their match versus the Revs.
Adrien Perez is nursing a foot problem, Moses Nyeman, Bill Hamid and Andy Najar all have thigh issues, Chris Odoi-Atsem has an ankle sprain and Nigel Robertha is unlikely to feature due to a head injury.
Last weekend, Sofiane Djeffal made his sixth appearance of the season, Tony Alfaro started for the first time since October of last year, while Steve Birnbaum and Brendan Hines-Ike are the only members of the team to have played every minute for the Black and Red this year.
Sebastian Ferreira has scored in consecutive matches for Houston as he and Darwin Quintero are tied for the team lead with four on the season, while Adam Lundqvist has an assist in successive fixtures to lead the Dynamo with three.
Quintero is questionable for this encounter with a right leg injury, while Daniel Steres is out due to a problem in his left leg.
Nagamura made two changes to his starting 11 versus the Verde and Black, as Teenage Hadebe and Memo Rodriguez began that fixture, while Ethan Bartlow and Matias Vera were on the bench.
DC United possible starting lineup:
Kempin; Alfaro, Birnbaum, Hines-Ike; Smith, Skundrich, Djeffal, Gressel; Fountas, Flores; Kamara
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Clark; Dorsey, Parker, Hadebe, Lundqvist; Carrasquilla, Ceren; Baird, Ferreira, Picault; Quintero
We say: DC United 1-2 Houston Dynamo
On paper, DC have more individual quality than the Dynamo, although they have only shown that in small sample sizes this season, whereas Houston have been more consistent and structurally sound so far in 2022.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 52.68%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 23.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that DC United would win this match.
