Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 50.59%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 26.42% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.66%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.

Result
Jong AZ	Draw	Willem II
26.42% ( -0.14)	23% ( -0.08)	50.59% ( 0.22)

Both teams to score 59.82% (

0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.21% (

0.26)

40.79% (

-0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.82% (

0.27)

63.17% (

-0.26)

Jong AZ Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.45% (

0.03)

28.55% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.66% (

0.05)

64.33% (

-0.04)

Willem II Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.72% (

0.18)

16.28% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.18% (

0.32)

45.82% (

-0.31)

Score Analysis

Jong AZ 26.42%

Willem II 50.59%

Draw 22.99%

Jong AZ	Draw	Willem II
2-1 @ 6.63% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 5.82% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.5% Total : 26.42%	1-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.99%	1-2 @ 9.6% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 7.66% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.81% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 4.63% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.64% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 2.64% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 2.1% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.46% Total : 50.59%