Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 38.93%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 36.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.08%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Almere City win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
