EFL Trophy | Third Round
Jan 4, 2022 at 7pm UK
Victoria Park
Hartlepool1 - 0Bolton
We said: Hartlepool United 2-1 Bolton Wanderers
With Hartlepool being on a good run of form heading into this one, as well as Bolton's struggles with form and COVID-19 issues, we can see the hosts pulling off an upset on Tuesday. Despite there being a division between these two sides, Hartlepool have displayed enough to show they can cause another shock here after thumping League One outfit Sheffield Wednesday in the previous round too. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Hartlepool United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 36.04% | 26.46% | 37.5% |
| Both teams to score 52.68% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
