Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.64%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 23.39% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.31%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 2-1 (6.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.