Famalicao and Belenenses go head to head at the Estadio Municipal de Famalicao in a highly-anticipated, bottom-of-the-table clash in round 16 of the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Wednesday.
Both sides, who are separated by just three points at the bottom of the table, are without a win in their last four league games and will be aiming to end this dry spell.
Match preview
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Famalicao saw their Taca de Portugal campaign come to an end in the last 16 as they lost on penalties to a rejuvenated Portimonense side last Tuesday.
In a cagey affair at the Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Aylton Boa Morte scored on the stroke of half time to hand Portimonense a first-half lead, but Bruno Rodrigues struck in the 82nd minute to force penalties, where newly-appointed manager Rui Pedro Silva watched his side fall to a 4-2 defeat.
Famalicao now turn their attention to the Primeira Liga, where they have failed to taste victory in any of their most recent four games, losing three and claiming one draw since a thrilling 5-2 victory over Boavista on November 5.
With 11 points from 15 games, the Famalicenses are currently 16th in the Primeira Liga standings, three points above Wednesday's visitors and one away from Tondela just outside the relegation places.
While they will look to end their dry spell and begin their charge away from the drop zone, next up is an opposing side who are unbeaten in each of the last four meetings between the teams, claiming two wins and two draws in that time.
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Like the hosts, Belenenses were dumped out of the Taca de Portugal last time out when they lost on penalties against Segunda Liga side Ruo Ave at the Estadio dos Arcos.
Pedro Nuno put the visitors ahead nine minutes into the game before Hugo Gomes restored parity two minutes before the interval and with nothing to separate the sides after 120 minutes the hosts claimed a 6-5 win on penalties.
That performance was in keeping with their struggles in the Primeira Liga, where they are currently on a four-game losing streak, stretching back to October's 2-1 victory over Santa Clara.
Their most recent defeat came at the Estadio Braga Municipal against Braga last time out, when 22-year-old defender Francisco Moura broke the deadlock in the opening minute of the game to hand the hosts a narrow 1-0 victory.
Belenenses have now managed just one win in the Primeira Liga this season, losing eight and picking up five draws from their 14 games so far and this poor run of results sees them rooted to the bottom of the league standings, four points away from safety.
A lack of goalscoring options has been one of the many reasons behind their woeful campaign as they have scored the lowest number of goals so far with just seven, while managing just two clean sheets at the opposite end of the pitch.
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Team News
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Despite the defeat against Portimonense, newly-appointed manager Rui Pedro Silva, who has worked in the technical department of the likes of Porto, Valencia and Wolverhampton Wanderers in the past, will take the positives from his side's performance and hope to begin his Primeira Liga record on a winning note.
However, he will be unable to call upon the services of Portuguese defender Diogo Figueiras, who is set to miss his fourth straight game after picking up an injury versus Gil Vicente on December 5.
Heriberto Tavares will also play no part for the hosts after the 24-year-old was forced to come off just 10 minutes into the game against Benfica three weeks back after sustaining a leg injury.
With his strike against Portimonense last time out, Bruno Rodrigues now has three goal involvements in his last three games and the Brazilian midfielder will definitely be one to look out for on Wednesday.
Belenenses, on the other hand, will have to cope with the absence of 23-year-old midfielder Chico Teixeira, who has been out of action since picking up an injury in September.
However, they will be boosted by the return of Brazilian forward Alisson Safira, who featured in the cup tie against Rio Ave last time out after recovering from a muscle problem.
Famalicao possible starting lineup:
Junior; Figueiras, Penetra, Ricceli, Marin; Pepe, Pickel; B Rodrigues, Brazao, Jaime; Banza
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Varela, Ribeiro, Carraca, Tavares, Calila; Phete, Lopes, Akas; Safira, Nuno
We say: Famalicao 1-1 Belenenses
With the sides separated by just three points at the bottom of the table, we expect them to take the game to each other in search of a morale boosting win. While Famalicao are on a fine run of results against Belenenses, they head into the game in similar form and we anticipate a share of the spoils with both sides settling for a point apiece.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 48.33%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Famalicao in this match.
