CF Montreal will pay a visit to TQL Stadium on Saturday for the second time in club history as their Major League Soccer season resumes when they meet FC Cincinnati.
The Orange and Blue failed to make their chances count last weekend, losing 2-0 to Charlotte FC, while Montreal are still seeking their first win of the campaign, drawing Atlanta United, 3-3 in a wild game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Match preview
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After a promising couple of matches in the middle of March, Pat Noonan saw a very different performance from his group a week ago.
In the early stages of their last encounter, Cincy failed to track the Charlotte runners in the middle of the field and were punished, going behind to a Karol Swiderski strike after six minutes and chasing the game from there as the Polish striker doubled the advantage 10 minutes after the break.
The Orange and Blue seem to be relying heavily on Brandon Vazquez, who is off to a great start this season and has carried the team in recent weeks.
While his individual quality is an asset, Noonan is calling on the rest of the squad to step up and improve their movement with the ball when there is time and space, while also putting more numbers into the opposition's box.
The most vital attribute that this team posses seems to be their quality attacking midfielders, who can create space with smart dribbling, while also showcasing a strong vertical passing game, which can put opposing defences on their heels.
It was a tough start to the season for Cincinnati, losing their opening two fixtures by a combined score of 6-0, but they have tightened up defensively since then and are doing a much better job at pressing other teams in the final third, enabling them to score five goals in their last three games.
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The wait continues for Wilfried Nancy and his Montreal squad, who are still seeking a victory this season after squandering a late two-goal lead versus Atlanta United to draw 3-3.
In four domestic encounters, we have seen our share of desperation from these players, who are lacking patience and struggling in their build-up play.
The structure and balance that we saw a year ago has not been consistently evident to this point of the campaign, which explains in part why they have yet to win a match.
Perhaps the most surprising thing that we have seen from this side is an inordinate amount of giveaways, which has allowed their opponents to break quickly and catch them in transition.
They have conceded the most goals in MLS to date (11), allowing eight strikes in the second half, another big surprise when you look at how sound defensively they were in 2021.
There is still plenty of time for Montreal to right the ship and get back on track, but it seems as though the margins are becoming incredibly thin for a side who were in the thick of a playoff race last year before losing their final regular-season encounter.
Montreal benefited from some Atlanta errors in their previous encounter and were a lot sharper in the final third, though maintaining their early intensity over 90 minutes has proven to be quite difficult.
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Team News
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Cincinnati striker Brandon Vazquez has four goals this season, which is tied for the most in MLS alongside Swiderski, Carlos Vela and Lucas Zelarayan, while Luciano Acosta leads the league in key passes with 21.
During the international qualification window, the club made a move, trading Gustavo Vallecilla to the Colorado Rapids in exchange for $400,000 in General Allocation Money for this year and in 2023.
John Nelson is out with a back injury, while Ray Gaddis seems to have recovered from a groin problem, as he came on for Alvas Powell in the second half against Charlotte.
Midfielder Djordje Mihailovic notched his first tally of the season for Montreal before the international break, as did Romell Quioto, while Ismael Kone had a goal and an assist as his stock within this group has risen considerably since the start of the year.
Mason Toye is suffering from an adductor injury, Ahmed Hamdi and Samuel Piette have ankle issues, Bjorn Johnsen and Sunusi Ibrahim have illnesses, Tom Giraldo has a leg injury, while Mathieu Choiniere suffered a knock and is listed as day-to-day.
Lassi Lappalainen is off to a good start this season with a goal and an assist, while Alistair Johnston was on the field for Canada last weekend when they officially clinched a spot in the upcoming FIFA World Cup.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Kann; Blackett, Cameron, Hagglund; Barreal, Cruz, Kubo, Gaddis; Acosta; Brenner, Vazquez
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Miller, Camacho, Waterman; Lappalainen, Wanyama, Zouhir, Brault-Guillard; Mihailovic, Torres; Kamara
We say: FC Cincinnati 2-3 CF Montreal
Defensively speaking, there is still room for improvement from both teams, but we expect a little more determination from Montreal against a side in Cincy who still tend to concede their share of space in transition, plus they have not fared well historically in their new venue.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 36.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
