Istanbul rivals Fenerbahce and Besiktas will lock horns at the Estadio Sukru Saracoglu on Sunday afternoon as they bid to improve their Super Lig form and climb back into European contention.
The two Turkish giants enter this contest off the back of contrasting league results, with the Yellow Canaries on the wrong end of a five-goal thriller against Gaziantep, while the Black Eagles won 4-2 on home soil against Kayserispor.
Match preview
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Fenerbahce missed the chance to climb into the Champions League places as they suffered a disappointing 3-2 defeat away against Gaziantep last weekend.
Mesut Ozil and Miha Zajc both got their names on the scoresheet for the visitors, however it was the hosts who had the last laugh as Joao Figueiredo scored his second of the game in the 73rd minute, which proved to be the winning strike and condemned the Yellow Canaries to their fifth league defeat this term.
That result has seen Vitor Pereira's men slip out of the European places altogether and down to fifth in the Super Lig standings, three points behind Konyaspor in second and 12 points behind league leaders Trabzonspor.
Fenerbahce head into Sunday's derby off the back of an inconsistent run of form, winning, drawing and losing two games each in their last six league fixtures.
Despite failing to win any of their last three meetings against Besiktas, the Yellow Canaries will feel that the Black Eagles are there for the taking this weekend, given the latter's underwhelming form across all competitions.
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Besiktas ended a run of five league games without a win when they secured all three points against Kayserispor last weekend, however, that result has failed to cover the cracks over their disappointing title defence and European campaign.
Excluding Sunday's result, the Black Eagles have won just three of their last 16 matches across all competitions, a dreadful run which saw Sergen Yalcin relieved of his duties following their heavy 5-0 loss against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League last week.
Former Nottingham Forest manager Sabri Lamouchi was believed to be in the running for the managerial vacancy, however Estoril head coach Bruno Pinheiro is now the strong favourite to take the reins at Vodafone Park.
Besiktas Under-19 coach Onder Karaveli will be in temporary charge for Sunday's derby against Fenerbahce, and the 47-year-old will be hoping that the senior side can replicate last season's impressive victory at the Estadio Sukru Saracoglu.
The Black Eagles ended a seven-game winless run away at Fenerbahce when they won 4-3 in November 2020, thanks to strikes from Vincent Aboubakar (2), Necip Uysal and Fabrice N'Sakala.
However, Besiktas head into this weekend's encounter low on confidence after losing seven and drawing one of their last eight away matches in all competitions this term.
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Team News
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Fenerbahce will be without forward Enner Valencia and midfielder Mert Hakan Yandas, who are suffering with respective ankle and muscle injuries.
Goalkeeper Altay Bayindir is ruled out until February with a shoulder problem, so 21-year-old Berke Ozer is set to deputise between the sticks.
Ozil, Diego Rossi and Serdar Dursun are all expected to start again in attack, while centre-midfielders Zajc, Max Meyer and Miguel Crespo will be battling for a place in the first XI alongside Luiz Gustavo.
As for Besiktas, Georges-Kevin N'Koudou (ligament), Alex Teixeira (thigh) and Mert Gunok (knee) are all ruled out due to injury.
Midfielder Josef de Souza has served his one-match suspension and will be in contention to start ahead of Can Bozdogan.
In-demand forward Cyle Larin – who has been linked with Premier League clubs including West Ham United and Brighton & Hove Albion – is set to continue on the left flank, with Chelsea loanee Michy Batshuayi to lead the line as the central striker.
Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Ozer; Kim, Tisserand, Szalai; Kadioglu, Crespo, Gustavo, Osayi-Samuel; Rossi, Ozil; Dursun
Besiktas possible starting lineup:
Destanoglu; Rosier, Saatci, Vida, Yilmaz; Hutchinson, Josef, Pjanic; Ghezzal, Batshuayi, Larin
We say: Fenerbahce 3-2 Besiktas
With the ball hitting the back of the net at least twice in each of the last 11 meetings between Fenerbahce and Besiktas, goals are to be expected once again on Sunday.
Both sides will be keen to turn their fortunes around domestically, though we can see the hosts edging out their city rivals in an entertaining contest at the Estadio Sukru Saracoglu.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 62.78%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Besiktas had a probability of 17.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 1-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for a Besiktas win it was 1-2 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
