Locked together on points in the Serie A standings, seventh-placed Fiorentina and Lazio - who sit eighth - convene at Stadio Artemio Franchi on Saturday.
While the Viola must recover from losing their top-scoring talisman at the end of the transfer window, their capital counterparts arrive in Florence looking to leapfrog the hosts with a win.
Match preview
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Despite a bright first half of the season under new coach Vincenzo Italiano, top-six contenders Fiorentina return to action amid a darkening scene in the Tuscan capital.
Star striker Dusan Vlahovic had consistently rejected new contract offers throughout last year, and was long thought to be on his way to the Premier League or perhaps La Liga in the summer. However, as it transpired, the prolific Serbia international had lined up a January move to Juventus - a frequent destination for the Viola's best talents - and has left behind an atmosphere of acrimony.
Forthright club president Rocco Commisso has not only maligned the machinations behind Vlahovic's switch to one of his club's bitterest rivals, but also turned on a discontented fanbase which wanted their centre-forward to leave for anywhere but Turin. All of which leaves a tall task for Italiano to keep his team's top-six push on track.
Though they were held to a 1-1 draw by lowly Cagliari in their most recent fixture, Fiorentina had previously won back-to-back matches and scored 11 times in the process - staying in touch with their fellow contenders for Europe and also progressing in the Coppa Italia.
Their only other outing since the winter break saw them beaten 4-0 at mid-table Torino though; confirming Italiano's outfit as being as unpredictable as they are entertaining.
Even so, a clear trend has appeared in their results so far, as the Viola have underwhelmed away from home, but they approach Saturday's game with the fourth-best home record throughout Serie A - picking up seven wins from their 11 games in Florence to date.
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A much more serene transfer window slid shut at Lazio on January 31, and head coach Maurizio Sarri will be hoping that such continuity can help his side find more consistency in the closing months of the campaign.
Outscoring all but the Milan clubs this season, the Biancocelesti have generally thrived in attack, but despite starting the year with a typically helter-skelter 3-3 draw with Empoli, their defensive record has begun to improve in recent weeks.
Three successive shut-outs - in victories over Salernitana and Napoli, plus a goalless draw with Atalanta - has aided their quest for a return to European football next term, while ensuring a place in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals - where they meet Milan next week.
Indeed, the Aquile are facing a challenging run of fixtures over the coming days: after visiting Fiorentina, they then tackle the Rossoneri in the cup and meet Porto in the Europa League.
As he prepares for Saturday's encounter, Sarri has apparently been deterred from signing an extension to the deal penned upon his arrival in the summer due to a lack of new recruits to support top scorer Ciro Immobile, who co-leads the Capocannoniere standings alongside Vlahovic on 17 goals.
However, any discord will have to be muted as the former Napoli boss leads his squad into a potentially make-or-break phase of the season - starting by seeking a double over the Viola, following October's 1-0 win in Rome.
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Team News
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Having taken possession of the number nine shirt vacated by Dusan Vlahovic, new signing Arthur Cabral could make his Fiorentina debut on Saturday, though most probably from the bench. The former Basel striker will compete with loanee Krzysztof Piatek for a place up front in Vincenzo Italiano's customary 4-3-3.
Though Nicolas Gonzalez is doubtful due to injury and Alvaro Odriozola must serve a suspension, the hosts should have an otherwise fully available squad, so Piatek is set to be joined by Jonathan Ikone and Riccardo Sottil in an attacking trident.
Having remained at the club despite speculation over a January departure, Sofyan Amrabat is back from Cameroon, where he has been an integral part of Morocco's Africa Cup of Nations campaign. However, he will most likely have to settle for a place among the substitutes.
To the frustration of their fans, Lazio's only winter window acquisition was Arthur Cabral's namesake Jovane Cabral, who has been signed to replace misfit striker Vedat Muriqi after the Kosovo international departed for Mallorca.
Featuring as a right-winger during training this week, the former Sporting forward can compete with Pedro - who now returns from a muscular issue - Felipe Anderson and Mattia Zaccagni for two places in support of Ciro Immobile.
Maurizio Sarri will also field a midfield three, featuring as part of a similar tactical setup to Fiorentina's.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Venuti, Milenkovic, Igor, Biraghi; Bonaventura, Duncan, Torreira; Sottil, Piatek, Ikone
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Hysaj, Felipe, Radu, Marusic; Milinkovic-Savic, Cataldi, Basic; Zaccagni, Immobile, Anderson
We say: Fiorentina 1-2 Lazio
The fallout from recent events at the Franchi - plus the need to observe a settling period for their new-look front line - could mean that Fiorentina are caught short in an absorbing encounter between two progressive teams.
Though no major signings have been made, Lazio can at least name a settled side - including the likeliest matchwinner: the in-form Immobile.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 55.81%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 21.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Lazio win it was 1-2 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
