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Premier League guaranteed to secure fifth Champions League spot tonight on one condition

How can the Premier League secure fifth Champions League spot tonight?
© Imago
The Premier League could be awarded a fifth Champions League spot depending on results in the Europa League and Conference League this evening.

The Premier League could be awarded a fifth Champions League spot depending on results in the Europa League and Conference League this evening.

English clubs have experienced mixed fortunes in this season's Champions League, with Manchester City surprisingly exiting the competition in the playoff round and Liverpool being knocked out on penalties by Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16 on Tuesday.

Arsenal and Aston Villa are the only two remaining English clubs in Europe's premier club competition after they both secured safe passage through to the quarter-finals on Wednesday.

While Arsenal drew 2-2 with PSV Eindhoven at the Emirates having previously thrashed the Dutch outfit 7-1 in the first leg, Aston Villa eased to a 3-0 home victory over 10-man Club Brugge in their second-leg tie at Villa Park, winning 6-1 on aggregate.

The success of both clubs has boosted the Premier League's chances of securing an additional Champions League spot for next season, with the English top flight currently in pole position to earn one of two places up for grabs.

Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca pictured on December 22, 2024© IconSport

Will Premier League secure fifth Champions League spot tonight?

The Premier League is guaranteed to land an extra Champions League place if at least two out of three Italian clubs fail to progress in the Europa League and Conference League tonight.

Lazio have put themselves in a strong position to advance to the Europa League quarter-finals as they boast a 2-1 first-leg advantage over Viktoria Plzen in their last-16 tie, with tonight's second leg to be played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

However, Roma are in danger of being knocked out by Athletic Bilbao as they trail 2-1 from the first leg, while Fiorentina must overturn a 3-2 deficit against Panathinaikos to progress to the last eight in the Conference League.

Meanwhile, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea's continued participation in European competition will only boost the Premier League's cause further.

While Chelsea boast a one-goal advantage over Copenhagen in their Conference League last-16 tie, Man United and Tottenham still have work to do to progress in the Europa League, with the Red Devils currently level at 1-1 with Real Sociedad, while Spurs are trailing AZ Alkmaar 1-0.

Dejan Kulusevski of Tottenham Hotspur and Diogo Dalot of Manchester United on December 19, 2024 © Imago

UEFA's coefficient rankings explained

Both the Premier League and La Liga are currently in a dominant position to secure an additional Champions League spot based on their coefficient ranking and record of their clubs across all of UEFA's competitions this season.

Across all UEFA competitions, clubs earn two coefficient points for each victory, a draw gets clubs one point, while nothing is awarded for a defeat. Additional points are also earned according to where each club finished in their respective League Phase tables.

Point earned by each club in their respective nations will be added together and the total will be divided by the number of clubs competing in European tournaments.

Using the Premier League as an example, a total of seven English clubs have collected 161.250 coefficient points, giving them an average of 23.035 and ranking them top of UEFA's standings as of March 13.

Spain, who also have seven clubs in Europe, currently sit second (20.892), while Italy and Germany with eight clubs each in Europe are in third (19.375) and fourth (17.546) respectively.

Last season, Bundesliga giants Borussia Dortmund and Serie A outfit Bologna were awarded the extra spots in the Champions League, after Germany and Italy outperformed clubs from England, Spain and France next on the list.

Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe celebrates on March 30, 2024© Imago

Which Premier League clubs could qualify for next season's Champions League?

While champions-elect Liverpool are all but guaranteed a top-four finish, second-placed Arsenal are also is a strong position to qualify for the Champions League, but the race below that for the top four, or top five, is wide open.

Indeed, surprise packages Nottingham Forest currently sit third in the table and two points ahead of fourth-placed Chelsea, who themselves are only two points clear of Man City and Newcastle United in fifth and sixth place respectively.

Just one point and one place further back are Brighton & Hove Albion in seventh, while Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Fulham complete the top 10, with the Cottagers sitting just five points behind the top five with 10 games still left to play.

There is a possibility that the Premier League could have as many as seven clubs competing in next season's Champions League - the top five teams in the league, plus the Champions League winners (Arsenal or Aston Villa) and the Europa League winners (Man United or Spurs) if they finish outside the top five.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool29217169274270
2Arsenal281510352242855
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest28156745331251
4Chelsea28147753361749
5Manchester CityMan City28145953381547
6Newcastle UnitedNewcastle2814594738947
7Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton28121064640646
8Aston Villa2912984145-445
9Bournemouth28128847341344
10Fulham2811984138342
11Crystal Palace2810993633339
12Brentford28115124844438
13Tottenham HotspurSpurs281041455411434
14Manchester UnitedMan Utd2897123440-634
15Everton2871293135-433
16West Ham UnitedWest Ham2896133248-1633
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves2865173857-1923
18Ipswich TownIpswich2838172658-3217
19Leicester CityLeicester2845192562-3717
20Southampton2823232068-489


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