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Attendance: 19,734

Championship | Gameweek 33

Feb 15, 2020 at 3pm UK

Middlesbrough
0-1
Luton Luton Town

FT(HT: 0-1)

Tunnicliffe (17')

Preview: Middlesbrough vs. Luton Town - prediction, team news, lineups

By Sean Wilson | 14 February 2020

Sports Mole previews the Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Middlesbrough will be hoping to avoid the same fate as Sheffield Wednesday when they host Luton Town on Saturday.

The newly-promoted side are 23rd in the Championship table and are seven points from safety, but Boro must guard against complacency if they are to avoid dropping points in a winnable fixture.

Match preview

Luton Town's Harry Cornick celebrates scoring their third goal with Glen Rea on January 28, 2020 © Reuters

Middlesbrough will see this fixture as an excellent opportunity to finally pick up three points, having drawn four and lost two of their last six league outings.

Having prided themselves on their defensive prowess, Boro have failed to keep a clean sheet in that six-game winless run, conceding a total of 10 times in that spell.

Jonathan Woodgate's side are still seven points clear of the dropzone, but the manager will be keen to arrest their recent slide and get into a winning habit to ensure that they are not sucked into a relegation battle.

However, a thrilling 3-3 draw was the outcome the last time these sides met - a result that neither side will be particularly enthused with this time around.

Luton's defensive record never really improved after that goal-filled opening-day clash, and last season's League One champions have already shipped 66 goals in just 32 Championship games so far - the worst record in the division.

That total is eight goals worse than the next highest tally - the 58 conceded by bottom-of-the-league Barnsley.

In fact, Luton have kept just two Championship clean sheets all season, such has been the porous nature of their defence.

However, one of those two clean sheets came in their last game - a shock 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday - and they will hope to build on those heroics on Saturday.

Middlesbrough Championship form: DLDDLD
Middlesbrough form (all competitions): LLDDLD

Luton Town Championship form: LLWLLW

Team News

Middlesbrough's Patrick Roberts is later substituted after picking up an injury on January 21, 2020 © Reuters

Middlesbrough manager Woodgate has a quartet of players missing ahead of Luton's visit.

Patrick Roberts, Daniel Ayala, Anfernee Dijksteel and Sam McQueen are all sidelined for Saturday's fixture.

Luton head coach Graeme Jones has far fewer injury problems to deal with, with Brendan Galloway the only player certain to miss the clash with a knee injury.

However, Martin Cranie is back in training and could be in contention.

Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Pears; Howson, Moukoudi, Fry, Coulson; Saville, McNair, Wing; Morrison; Fletcher, Assombalonga

Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Bree, Pearson, Bradley, Potts; Rea; Tunnicliffe, Ruddock; Brown; Cornick, Collins

We say: Middlesbrough 1-0 Luton Town

Neither side is in particularly strong form and, despite Luton's morale-boosting win against Sheffield Wednesday, Middlesbrough could put an end to their winless run with a narrow win on home soil.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 60.23%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for had a probability of 17.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a win it was 0-1 (5.48%).