It is a bottom-of-the-table clash in the Portuguese Primeira Liga when Moreirense and Belenenses go head to head at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas on Monday.
Os verdes e brancos are currently bottom but one in the league standings, four points above the visitors who are rooted to the bottom of the pile with 12 points from 20 games.
Match preview
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Moreirense continue to struggle for consistency as they failed to pull clear of the relegation zone last Sunday when they fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Braga.
Following an uneventful first half at the Estadio Braga Municipal, Mutassim Al Musrati broke the deadlock three minutes after the interval before Ricardo Horta made sure of the result from the penalty spot in the 72nd minute.
Prior to that, Ricardo Sa Pinto's side were beaten by the same scoreline by a rejuvenated Santa Clara side on January 22, when Ricardinho and Mohammad Mohebi scored in either half to end their two-game unbeaten run.
Os verdes e brancos head into Monday's game winless in all but one of their last four league outings — losing three and claiming one draw — with a 1-0 win over Vizela on January 8 being the only exception.
With 16 points from 20 games, Moreirense are currently 17th in the Primeira Liga standings, one spot above Monday's visitors and two behind Arouca just outside the relegation places.
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Like the hosts, Belenenses failed to pick up points last time out as they suffered a humbling 4-1 defeat against Sporting Lisbon at the Estadio Nacional do Jamor.
Abel Camara halved the deficit in the 21st minute after Paulinho and Pedro Porro put the reigning champions two goals up, but Pablo Sarabia scored on the stroke of half time to restore the two-goal advantage before Paulinho put the icing on the cake with his second of the game in the 47th minute.
Belenenses have now failed to taste victory in each of their most recent four Primeira Liga games, losing three and claiming one draw, while they have managed just one win in their last 10.
Their poor performances this season has been in no small part owing to their struggles at the defensive end of the pitch, where they boast the division's joint-poorest record with 37 goals conceded.
While Franclim Carvalho's men will look to end this dry spell, next up is an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in each of the last eight meetings between the teams since 2018, losing four and claiming four draws in that time.
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Team News
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Moreirense will be boosted by the return of 22-year-old full-back Godfried Frimpong, who featured as a substitute in the game against Braga last time out after recently recovering from a lengthy injury lay-off.
While Portuguese midfielder Felipe Soares recently completed a move to PAOK, new signing Kevin Mirallas made his debut in the aforementioned game where he was handed an eight-minute cameo and the former Everton man could come into the starting lineup on Monday.
Steven Vitoria is also back available for selection after serving his suspension for receiving his marching orders in the game against Santa Clara two weeks back.
Belenenses, on the other hand, will have to cope without the services of 23-year-old midfielder Chico Teixeira, who has been out of action since picking up an injury in September.
Fellow countryman Rafael Camacho has been out of action since sustaining a muscle problem against Estoril Praia on December 12 and will play no part for O Belem.
However, Dutch midfielder Jordan van der Gaag is back available after missing the game against Sporting Lisbon through his suspension after receiving his marching orders in the game against Maritimo two weeks ago.
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Kewin; Silva, Rosic, Jorge, Conte; Mota, Camara, Mirallas; Santos, Luis, Martins
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Ramalho; Akas, Ribeiro, Carraca, Tavares; Calila, Phete, Varela; Safira, Camara, Sousa
We say: Moreirense 1-1 Belenenses
Both sides head into this one in poor form and we expect them to take the game to each other in search of a morale-boosting win. While Belenenses are without a win against the hosts in each of their last eight meetings, their most recent three encounters have ended all square. We predict another share of the spoils with both sides scoring one goal apiece.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.28%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 0-1 (10.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
