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World Cup Group A permutations: Who needs what to qualify for the last 16?

Sports Mole takes a closer look at the permutations for Netherlands, Ecuador, Senegal and Qatar on the final matchday of World Cup 2022 Group A.

The World Cup group stage begins its final round of fixtures on Tuesday, and Group A will be the first to officially wrap up when all four sides play at 3pm GMT.

Three of the four teams still have a chance to qualify for the last 16, with neither of the top two places yet confirmed and host nation Qatar already guaranteed to miss out on a spot in the knockout rounds.

Netherlands and Ecuador currently sit on four points apiece after two games, while Senegal are one point behind heading into the final matchday.

Here, Sports Mole looks at what each team needs to qualify for the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup.



NETHERLANDS

Netherlands forward Cody Gakpo celebrates scoring against Ecuador in their World Cup game on November 25, 2022..© Reuters

Netherlands sit in pole position heading into the final matchday, but only by the narrowest of margins ahead of Ecuador, with the two sides level on points, goal difference, goals scored and head-to-head record from their opening two games.

Louis van Gaal's side are therefore only top courtesy of their superior fair play record, although given that their final game comes against Group A minnows Qatar, they remain big favourites to finish top of the pile.

The Dutch only need to avoid defeat to guarantee their place in the last 16, although they could surrender top spot even if they win, should Ecuador beat Senegal by a bigger margin.

Indeed, Netherlands could qualify even if they suffer one of the great World Cup shocks, with defeat still enough if Ecuador also beat Senegal.

However, should they lose and Senegal win, then it would come down to the margin of victory - if Netherlands lost to Qatar by a greater margin than Ecuador lost to Senegal, then the three-time finalists would be out.

A defeat coupled with a draw between Senegal and Ecuador would also see things come down to goal difference, and if that was level then Netherlands would progress by virtue of their head-to-head record against Senegal.



ECUADOR

Ecuador celebrate their equaliser against Netherlands at the World Cup on November 25, 2022.© Reuters

While Netherlands should face a fairly easy passage through against Qatar - although this World Cup has already proven that such assumptions are dangerous - Group A's other match is essentially a winner-takes-all affair.

Ecuador's one-point advantage puts them in the driving seat, meaning that a win or a draw will be enough to book their place in the last 16 for only the second time in their history.

However, defeat would guarantee that they finish below their opponents on matchday three, and would then be reliant on the unlikeliest of results in the other game between Qatar and Netherlands.

Should Qatar beat Netherlands and Ecuador lose to Senegal then the South American outfit could still progress, but it would then come down to goal difference, and possibly beyond.



SENEGAL

Senegal forward Famara Diedhiou celebrates scoring against Qatar in their World Cup game on November 25, 2022.© Reuters

The situation is clearer for Senegal - nothing but a win will do when they face Ecuador if they are to keep the prospect of progression within their own hands.

Sitting one point behind both Netherlands and Ecuador means that victory would guarantee their place in the last 16 for only the second time in their history, whereas defeat would end their hopes regardless of what happens in the other game.

A draw could keep their hopes alive, although they would then be left hoping for a home upset of Qatar beating Netherlands.

Should that be the case then Senegal and Netherlands would finish level on points and it would then come down to goal difference, which means that Senegal would need Netherlands to lose to Qatar by three clear goals due to their inferior head-to-head record.

Aliou Cisse's side became the first team in World Cup history to be eliminated by the fair play rule in Russia four years ago, but there is no prospect of that sickening blow happening again this time around.



QATAR

Qatar forward Mohammed Muntari scores against Senegal in their World Cup game on November 25, 2022.© Reuters

Qatar suffered the ignominy of being the first team eliminated from their own World Cup courtesy of their defeat to Senegal on matchday two.

Even avoiding bottom spot in Group A is a tall order for the hosts heading into the final matchday, as they would need to beat Netherlands, for Ecuador to beat Senegal and for there to be a five-goal swing in goal difference just to finish third.

However, there are other things for Qatar to fight for - namely pride - as they look to avoid going down as the worst World Cup hosts of all time in terms of on-field matters.

After defeats to both Ecuador and Senegal, Qatar could become the first host nation to lose three games at their own World Cup, while one more goal conceded would also mean they have conceded more goals in the group stage than any previous host.


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Barney Corkhill
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Ecuador players huddle before the match on November 12, 2022
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