Hellas Verona and Parma meet at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi on Wednesday evening both realistically needing maximum points to remain in the hunt for a European place.
At the beginning of the week, the club are locked on the same points in ninth and eighth respectively, sixth points adrift of sixth-placed Napoli.
Match preview
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After getting the better of Juventus shortly after the turn of the year, Hellas Verona would have had high hopes of gatecrashing the top six before the end of the season.
While they remain just six points off that target, it is a case of what could have been for I Gialloblu after recording just five points from their last five games.
Included in that run is a potentially-decisive 2-0 defeat at Napoli, while conceding two late goals at Sassuolo led to two more points being dropped at the weekend.
First and foremost, Ivan Juric must get his side back performing to the levels which they were producing before lockdown, which saw them build one of the best defensive records in the division.
However, with draws now not helping their cause, the Croatian boss may have to consider a change of strategy if Verona are to avoid dropping further down into mid-table.
Parma also find themselves in a position where they have been left ruing missed opportunities, most recently at home to Inter Milan on Sunday evening.
Holding a 1-0 lead with a man advantage, Parma managed to succumb to a 2-1 defeat, missing out on the chance to close the gap on the top six to just four points.
Like Verona, there will be a feeling that there is still plenty of time to make an impact further up the standings, but the general consensus is that momentum is everything at this stage of the campaign.
On the plus side, Roberto D'Aversa and his Parma squad have no time to dwell on the disappointment of capitulating against one of the title contenders, while still taking the confidence from thrashing Genoa in the previous game.
Hellas Verona Serie A form: WDLWLD
Parma Serie A form: LWLDWL
Team News
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Having made a positive impression after replacing highly-regarded Marash Kumbulla, Alan Empereur could be preferred as part of the back three.
Emmanuel Badu may also be brought back into the centre of midfield, potentially at the expense of Miguel Veloso.
Fabio Borini remains absent for Verona as he serves the final game of his three-match ban.
Parma also have to make do without a player through suspension after Juraj Kucka's late dismissal against Inter.
Gaston Brugman is in line to take the place of the Slovakia international.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Rrahmani, Gunter, Empereur; Adjapong, Amrabat, Badu, Lazovic; Stepinski; Pessina, Zaccagni
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Laurini, Dermaku, Alves, Gagliolo; Brugman, Scozzarella; Kulusevski, Kurtic; Cornelius, Gervinho
We say: Hellas Verona 1-1 Parma
Although both teams will feel inclined to push for all three points, we cannot see anything other than a low-scoring draw on Wednesday evening. With both managers having witnessed their sides suffer in defence, the onus will be on improving that part of their game.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 45.69%. A win for Parma had a probability of 28.64% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hellas Verona would win this match.
